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STN Sports Weekly Rundown

December 13, 2023

Book Wins Big On NFL Underdogs, Ohtani Shakes Up Baseball Lines

With the opening of Durango Casino and Resort now in their neighborhood, only Southwest Las Vegas had a better week than the STN Sports Books. “It was definitely one of our better Sundays over the last four-to-six weeks,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director.

Look at a list of quarterback names that won in Week 14 of the NFL: Tommy DeVito, Nick Mullins, Jake Browning, Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Bailey Zappe. Not exactly as explosive as the Durango fireworks that lit up the sky last week. Look at names that lost: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence and more. Said Esposito, “The all-star list of guys that lost compared to the list of guys that won is a bit of a head-scratcher.”

With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back at the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports app and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books…

NFL

The Sunday night game between the Eagles and Cowboys saw a huge handle, but because of all the upsets earlier in the day and week, the side didn’t really matter as much to the STN Books. “We were clearly Eagles fans, but the biggest part about the Sunday night game was we had to keep that game under,” Esposito said of the 52.5 total. The game ended with Dallas decking Philly like the Rouge Wonderland, winning 33-13. “It looked like there was no chance it would stay under, but somehow it found a way,” Esposito said. “Whatever the scenario was, we needed that game under and I just didn’t think there was any way that game was going to stay under.” Still, the biggest handle of the NFL weekend came via the Colts and Bengals game, which saw the favorite flipped like a cowboy getting bucked off a bull during NFR. “The Bengals went from a ‘dog to a three-point favorite, and that clearly went in favor of the guests,” Esposito said.

Betting in this time of year involves a third player: the weather. We’ve already seen a few games where extreme weather played a role, and with it now snowing in various parts of the country (thankfully not here!) Mother Nature can affect games and lines. “I think you have to pay attention to weather reports now,” Esposito said. “You’re going to see under money if the weather’s bad.” Snow and rain usually mean fields are slower than an F1 deconstruction project. When the weather is good and teams are hunting for playoff spots, over money tends to be a more popular play.

Looking ahead to Week 15, money is already ticking in on two teams that lost last week in bad fashion, the Lions and Bills. Interesting, the most movement so far has come on totals. The Chicago at Cleveland game is getting under love, as fans expect weather to be a factor. The Jets at Dolphins game is seeing under money, too. There’s also been an influx of over money coming in on the Cowboys at Bills game. Over the years, Buffalo’s weather has been more chaotic than the Fontainebleau parking garage, but things look clear and nice (by Buffalo standards) this Sunday.

Entering the week, only three entries from a field of 6,324 remained in the hunt for the $150,000 prize in Station Casinos’ Last Man Standing NFL completion. One contestant had the 49ers over the Seahawks, one had the Bills over the Chiefs and one had the Bengals. All three won, meaning they all lived to fight another day… just like all of Floyd Mayweather’s opponents.

Going Bowling

Wouldn’t it be great if college football could save the drama for your mama! In an era where players are opting out of bowl games at lightning speed, how do we handicap them? “We’re in an information era, so you really need to try reading between the lines and seeing who’s in or who’s out,” Esposito said. “We’re moving games much quicker. We’re going to be way more aggressive because of the uncertainty across the board.” So far, quarterbacks from Southern Cal, Notre Dame, Oregon State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and North Carolina will all be absent from their bowl games, as will other key players and top 2024 NFL Draft picks. Lines are rising and dropping like a hotel tower elevator because of these decisions. In Ohio State’s case, they’re now the underdog — this is a team that was one loss away from going to the playoff, and they’re a dog! That’s how important opt-outs are. “If you are betting these ball games, you need to be really dialed in and be looking at this stuff every day because it’s not the bowl games that we saw a decade ago,” Esposito said. Food for thought: underdogs historically perform incredibly well in bowl games— better than they do in the regular season… Just sayin’.

Something Blue

There are now 700 million reasons to bet on the Dodgers in the future book. It wasn’t hugely surprising when Shohei Ohtani announced that he was signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the next decade. It was the size of the contract that had everyone more shaken than a California fault line ($700 million!!!) Even Dr. Evil from the Austin Powers movies couldn’t have envisioned this number. Before the announcement, the Dodgers and Braves were co-favorites to win the 2024 World Series. Now, the Dodgers are the overall favorite. “I think the Dodgers had this in mind a year ago when they didn’t go out and make a whole lot of moves, but it’ll be interesting to see the way it plays out,” Esposito said. “Their lineup’s pretty good and I don’t think they’re done at this point.” Before the announcement, many had the Japanese two-way player headed to Toronto. After Ohtani was LA-bound, the books moved up the Blue Jays future book number by more than 50%. Esposito added, “There’s a lot of guys that could still potentially be moved that will change some team’s odds, but Ohtani definitely shook it up at the top.”

Bets To Know

With a big UFC 296 coming up this weekend, bet on all the fights with the STN Sports App, including props!

Weekly Winners

Congrats to this nice 8-team parlay that hit Dec 12, $49 to win $4,522!

– MARYLAND -23 -110

– RADFORD -16 -110

– CINCINNATI -21 -110

– WESTERN KENTUCKY +6 -120

– MINNESOTA -23 -110

– NUGGETS OV 218 -120

– PENGUINS -185

– OILERS -1.5 -170