Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money .
STN Sports Weekly Rundown
January 5, 2022
Welcome to the new year, folks… And what a year it’s been already! Take a look at all that’s happened in the days since the calendar flipped: a railing nearly collapsed onto Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, and for the first time in the history of the NHL, two teams played a game in subzero temperatures. I don’t know about you, but I’m feeling 2022 [Taylor’s Version]. With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in the sports world and take a peek at what’s ahead on the field, on the ice, on the court, on the STN App and at the Station Casinos Sportsbook.
Week 18 Analysis
We made it! Following the longest season in NFL history, the last week of the regular season is upon us. Having said that, we all hoped there would be a crush of meaningful games after the NFL added an 18th week this year. That hasn’t really happened. Most of the playoff teams are set and merely fighting for seeding. Granted, there are still impactful games left on the slate, but the majority of the games won’t have an effect on who’s in and who’s out. Still, there is value to be had. “You hear coaches all the time talking about playing to win and saying this guy or that guy are playing, and then they backtrack a few days later,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sportsbook Director. “It’s difficult for our side of the counter and for the bettors.” How do you make money on these games? First, here’s a novel idea, watch the games. Second, like Heidi Klum suntanning at The Pond at Green Valley Ranch, watch the lines. It’s very common for All-Pro players to be pulled during these somewhat meaningless games, especially at halftime. Second half and in-play betting could be the key to increased account. Take a look at the Green Bay-Detroit game as an example of the oddity during the final week. The Packers are the top team in the NFC and only opened as a small favorite against the listless Lions. Why? It’s very possible that Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams don’t play. In the bizarro world of Week 18, the two-win Lions could actually go off as the favorite by the time the ball kicks. Our advice, do some scoreboard watching in the early games and adjust accordingly.
Team Titan
Has there ever been a No. 1 seed with less buzz than the Tennessee Titans? Mike Vrabel’s guys have very quietly been dominant for much of the season, even beating playoff-bound teams such as the Chiefs, Bills, Rams and Colts (twice). “They are a sleeping giant,” Esposito insisted. If the Titans can get all-world running back Derrick Henry back for the playoffs, he’s going to be fresher than a peppermint. Plus, if A.J. Brown and Julio Jones get it cooking, watch out! In addition, the Titans are really good at home, accumulating a 7-2 record. As long as they beat the poor Texans in Week 18, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC runs through Nashville. AFC’s best squads might soon echo the words of the late Waylon Jennings: “I’ve been chasin’ the big wheels all over Nashville.” The Big Wheels = Henry, Jones, Brown, Tannehill.
Beat It Up
They call it the Peach Bowl, but there was nothing sweet for Pitt backers. The Panthers were getting 3.5 against Michigan State by the time the line closed, partially due to the fact that Pitt quarterback-and-future-first-rounder Kenny Pickett opted out. The bet became more difficult to win when Pitt’s backup QB went down just a few plays into the game. However, much like the New Kids On The Block in the late ‘80s, Pitt was hangin’ tough and up 11 with about 11 minutes to go in the game! To make matters worse, Pitt had possession and was down by just three points with under a minute to go. With the score being 24-21 at that point, the cover looked like a lock. But, you know what happened: with under 30 seconds to go and Pitt driving down the field, QB3 threw a strike… to the other team. Rather than taking a knee after the INT, the Michigan State defender took the ball to the house for a pick-six with just 22 seconds left. Final score: Sparty 31-Pitt 21. Pitt bettors, welcome to Bad Beat Boulevard. Like Allegiant Stadium, it’s a cashless place.
SEChampions
All those people who believe the SEC gets too much love in college football can turn away. After a season in which only two teams were ever ranked No. 1, those same two teams — Alabama and Georgia — will meet for the National Championship. Although the Tide beat the Dogs quite handily in the SEC Championship a month ago, Georgia has settled in as a field goal favorite (they were a six-point favorite at the first meeting.) “The early money has been on Georgia,” Esposito relayed, adding that he expects a lot of Alabama moneyline bets closer to kickoff. Georgia is simply a better, meaner, stronger team, Esposito believes. Still, they have to scale a mountain they’ve struggled to climb: Mount Saban. Alabama has beaten Georgia in seven straight contests, and the Bulldogs have only beaten the Crimson Tide once during Nick Saban’s tenure as coach, which came during his first year at the helm in Tuscaloosa. You can probably count on one hand how many times Saban has been an underdog over the past 15 years — it’s more rare than a steak at Sonoma Cellar. It’s happening this week though. “It looks to be Georgia’s year,” Esposito said. “I have them ranked as the better team, my power rating has them better, but they still have to get over the hump of beating Alabama.”
Flower Power
Our hero is returning. On Saturday, one of the most anticipated games in the short history of the Vegas Golden Knights will occur with Marc-André Fleury coming back to The Fortress for the first time since he was traded in the offseason. Make no mistake about it, emotions will run high and it just might be the one time VGK fans would be ok with a shutout loss (but you wouldn’t get free Krispy Kreme if that happened). On paper, the game should be no contest. Chicago isn’t very good, and VGK is the best team in the team in the Western Conference, according to points. “There will be Vegas fans who want to bet on Fleury as a symbolic gesture, but I suspect we’ll be Blackhawks fans from our side of the counter on that one,” Esposito said. “The handle will be a little more than normal as compared to a regular season hockey game.” Station Casinos and the STN App is also planning to post additional Fleury-based prop bets. Esposito added, “The atmosphere will be a like a playoff game in T-Mobile for that one. You’re bringing back the face of the franchise.” Welcome back, 29.
NBA ATS WTF
The Brooklyn Nets are one of the best teams in the NBA, but you’re not getting rich off of them. The Oklahoma City Thunder are not even close to being one of the best teams in the NBA, but you are getting rich off of them. What is going on in the betting universe? The Thunder have an impressive 23-13 against the spread. The Nets, for that matter, are just 14-20-1 ATS. Is it fair to wonder if Brooklyn is being overvalued due to the team’s hype? “It’s hard to say, because you know who has an incredible record against the spread in pro football? The Detroit Lions,” Esposito said. “There are certain teams that the public is going to back and certain teams that they’re going to fade. From night to night there’s just a lot of variables that you look at, like teams that have played back-to-back games or three games in five days. I think all that kind of plays into it. Granted, there might be some numbers that are inflated to a degree, but sometimes it’s just kind of in the eye of the beholder.” There is, though, some symbiosis in the Association: Golden State and Chicago are both playing good ball and have nice ATS records; Portland is playing bad basketball and its against the spread record looks like a horror movie that you might see at the Santa Fe Station movie theaters.
Bets To Know
Besides just picking winners and losers, be on the lookout in the STN Sports App for prop options, including:
– 1st Team To Score
– Special Pointspreads
– Alternate Totals
– Will There Be a Special Teams or Defensive TD (Y/N)
– 1st Half Lines
STN Sports Weekly Winners
