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STN Sports Weekly Rundown

January 19, 2021

Sin City or win city? The Station Casinos Sports Books barely made it out alive after guests gave it a whipping that even Betty Crocker can’t compete with. Bettors on the STN app and at the Station sportsbooks hammered the favorites during the NFL’s Wildcard Round over the past weekend, and they were rewarded handsomely. During the opening round of the playoffs, favorites went 5-1. “The one underdog that won outright was the 49ers, but they still got a lot of love from the guests,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. “It was a really good weekend for our guests. We were waiting for the puppies to start barking, but unfortunately that didn’t happen — unfortunate for our side of the counter.” See, it pays to bet at Station Casinos Sports Books and on the STN App… literally! With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in the sports world and take a peek at what’s ahead on the field, on the ice and on the court.

Bye, Bye
The Packers and the Titans = the lone two teams who have a bye in the playoffs this year and begin their quest for the Lombardi Trophy this weekend. The bye week is valuable. Really valuable. Don’t overthink it. Teams coming off a bye in the NFL playoffs have a huge winning percentage. In the words of the great poets NSYNC, I don’t want to be your fool in this game for two. The “two” are the Packers and Titans. Don’t be a fool. “The betters have already shown some love to both the Packers and Titans, and we’ve seen those numbers go up already,” Esposito said, noting that the top NFC and AFC seeds are always bet heavy for good reason. “People betting on teams with the bye is something that we’ve seen in the past and that has held true again.” The extra week allowed the Titans to get healthy and maybe get Derek “King” Henry back, and it gave Aaron Rodgers time to heel his toe. The value of the bye is immense. Or, as NSYNC say, It might sound crazy but it ain’t no lie baby bye bye bye.

Elite Eight
While you saw double-digit favorites in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs, the same can’t be said for this upcoming weekend. All four games have a spread of under a touchdown. “I think you can really make cases for all eight teams to win their games,” Esposito said. The parity of the league is further exemplified by the current Super Bowl line on the board, which has the NFC representative as a favorite, but only by a whisker. “The NFC/AFC Super Bowl line is kind of based on the Packers against the Bills or Chiefs,” the oddsmaker said. In fact, a peek at the AFC Championship odds show a bit of an anomaly. The Titans, who are the top seed in the conference, are behind both the Chiefs and Bills in regards to the odds. (In the NFC, the Packers are the clear frontrunner). There is a method to the madness. “We know that either the Bills or Chiefs will move on to the AFC title game because they play each other. Although the Titans are the No. 1 seed I think most people still think the Bills and Chiefs are gonna come out of the AFC. We don’t know what we’re gonna get out of the Titans, and they’re playing arguably the hottest team in the league in the Bengals,” Esposito said. “I’m not saying that the Titans won’t come out of the AFC, but that’s the public’s perception.” Even Rodney Dangerfield got more respect than the Titans. The public’s view of especially the Chiefs has been the same all year. Exhibit A: in Week 5, Kansas City wasn’t even a playoff team and was in last place in the division, yet the Mahomies still had the second lowest odds to win the Big Dance. “I think our side of the counter and the other side of the counter both perceive the Bills and Chiefs as the two best teams in the AFC,” Esposito said. You’re welcome for the motivation, Mike Vrabel.

Gold Rush
All indications point to 49ers quarterback and should-be-hair-model Jimmy Garoppolo playing this weekend against the Packers. Jimmy G has hand and shoulder injuries, so his status isn’t 100 percent certain. If the 49ers signal caller can’t go (and there are rumors), Trey Lance will step in… and the line will undoubtably shoot up. “That number would most certainly tick up to double digits, just because of the inexperience,” Esposito said, reference the fact that Lance is a rookie. “This can go up to 13 points if Jimmy G is out. Although Trey Lance was able to play a little bit late in the season, he clearly would be up against the elements of really good defense and the magnitude of a playoff game at Lambeau Field. I’ve said this before and I’m not backing down from it, the Packers have the largest home field advantage in the NFL. If Lance has to go, this number would definitely go beyond 10 points, no question in my mind.” If you like the Packers, maybe jump on them now at a reduced price (potentially).

Parlay Paydays
The cascade of money going to the bettors over the weekend can’t be understated. Huge payouts were more common than floor popcorn at Regal Cinemas after a Disney movie. “We had several tickets that paid upwards of $50,000, several,” Esposito painfully admitted. “With all the favorites coming in, most of these favorites were able to win the first half, as well. That was really beneficial to the bettors. There were a lot of three, four, five, six-team parlays that hit across the board.” Oddsmakers feel more pounded than a dauber at Santa Fe Station’s Bingo Lounge.

Looking Up
Trend alert! The Florida Panthers and Colorado Avalanche are scoring more than Pete Davidson these days. If you want to make money, just bet the over in every one of their games. Florida games are cashing on the over 63 percent of the time, and Colorado games are going over an absurd 73 percent of the time. “You look at how these teams are playing overs right now and it’s a historic pace,” Esposito said, noting that both teams have already scored over 150 goals. “They are just scoring at an epic pace. You look at Florida and it’s almost a guaranteed bet over every day for the betters right now.”

Mid-Major Money Madness
Middle Tennessee State. Monmouth. Davidson: Put some respect on these names! The novice college basketball bettor might be more prone to betting the blue bloods, like Duke, Kansas and UCLA, but less actually means more right now. Lower-tier schools are beating spreads at impressive rates. The Blue Raiders of MTSU fame are batting nearly 86 percent against the spread, and Monmouth and Davidson are each cashing tickets at an 80 percent rate. “Sometimes some of the teams in those smaller leagues are just dominant and they’re really good,” Esposito said. “With some of these smaller schools, I think that when you’re a good program you get kids that stay there for multiple years.” Think of it like a houseguest who’s nearly overstayed their welcome — they’ve been there forever, but at least they know where everything is. There’s value in that! With the exception of Gonzaga, top end programs these days aren’t able to groom players for very long, since pro prospects almost always head to the NBA after a year of college. “Back in the old days, you have guys that stayed three or four years. You just don’t see that anymore for the top schools, but you see that a lot more for smaller conferences,” Esposito said. “Some of those schools and those players and those teams get really good since they’re mature and they’ve gelled and grown together. The bettors see that. We’re in an information era and they clearly do their homework.” Norfolk State, Towson, Alcorn State, Cornell… you keep doing you!

Bets To Know

Pro Football futures are available for each of the remaining teams in the playoffs. Who will you put your money on?

STN Sports Weekly Winners

– (JAN 17) RAMS -4
– (JAN 16) CHIEFS -12.5
– (JAN 16) BUCS -8.5
– (JAN 15) BILLS -4.5
– (JAN 15) BENGALS -5.5
– (JAN 14) ILLINOIS -9.5
– (JAN 14) PURDUE -20