Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money .
STN Sports Weekly Rundown
January 26, 2021
Like every football fan and Angela Bassett, the Station Casinos Sports Book is waiting to exhale after that incredible NFL weekend. Many pundits have already dubbed it the greatest weekend in NFL history and that’s hard to argue, as all four NFL games last weekend came down to the very last play and ended with walk-offs… kind of like Adele.
“I think my blood pressure is just starting to come down,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director, who noted that the Book cashed due to three underdogs winning outright, but not the fourth (more on that later). Still, if you’re a fan of the NFL and you had the honor of watching those four games, the real winner was us. With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in the sports world and take a peek at what’s ahead on the field, on the ice, on the court, on the STN App and at the Station Casinos Sports Book.
The Ones
“One” is something you hope the guy in front of you is doing at the public restroom. It’s also the seed NFL teams strive for when getting into the playoffs. After all, you’re perceived to be the best team in your conference, you get home field advantage throughout the conference playoffs and you get a bye week while everyone else beats up on each other. This week, the No. 1 seed was more of an albatross for the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans. Both top seeds lost outright, which was a positive outcome for Stations oddsmakers. Still, how unpredictable was this scenario? Aaron Rodgers and Co. were 8-0 at home this season until last week. The Titans, meanwhile, were 4-0 after coming off a bye week since Mike Vrabel took over as head coach. Welp, bye Felicias.
Greatest Game Ever?
Dear Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, thank you. Sincerely, everyone. Also, on behalf of everyone: why did the Kansas City Chiefs/Buffalo Bills game have to end?! The epic clash between these teams went back and forth and saw 25 points in the final two minutes of play. The game would eventually go to overtime, where Patrick Mahomes and crew won the coin toss and proceeded to methodically march down the field, score, and win 42-36. What. A. Game. The end result was a big windfall for the Sports Book, too.
“We were in the rare position of cheering for the Chiefs, which we hardly ever do,” Esposito said. Prior to the weekend’s games, many, many fans bet all four underdogs in a money line parlay, which paid 40-to-1. “Everything was dumping into the Bills,” the oddsmaker said. “We didn’t realize we were going to have that kind of liability.” A Bills win would have been a “worst case scenario” for the casino, largely due to all those aforementioned parlays. “We wanted the Chiefs, the favorite, just to win. We didn’t care about the point spread, which is a very unusual predicament for us to be in,” Esposito added. “In the words of Al Davis, ‘Just Win, Baby.’ The irony is we usually want the underdog to win.”
Brutal Bad Beat
If you think the Bills had a hard loss on Sunday, just imagine being the one Station Casinos bettor who made a six-figure bet on the second half under total of 27.5 points. With less than two minutes to go, the second half number was sitting at 27 points, and the bettor looked well on the way to rolling in the deep dough. Considering all of this, it’s inexplicable that the bettor lost by more than three touchdowns! Three touchdowns! Put that on the Mount Rushmore of bad beats. That’s even worse pain than trying to get an Uber after a Raiders game.
AFC’s Best
The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals met in Week 17, a game in which Cincy won 34-31. Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid recently said that game wasn’t “a fluke.” Still, the NFL is a week-to-week sport, and the boys from Arrowhead Stadium have been established as a touchdown favorite in the AFC Championship Game. Thus far, the early money is on the guys who hail from Missouri (not Kansas!).
The Chiefs, for what it’s worth, are the current favorites to win the Super Bowl, not just this game. As the viral meme says, Joe Burrow is the only man on Earth who can keep Patrick Mahomes’ brother from TikToking at the Super Bowl. The world needs you, Joe. No pressure. Perhaps the most intriguing line in this game is the total. The Chiefs have gone over the total in the last seven games. The Bengals, meanwhile, have gone under the total in five of the last seven games. Additionally, this is the highest point total in any Bengals game this season (and by a decent margin, too). The total opened at 51 and was quickly bet up.
NFC’s Best
The Rams played the 49ers twice this season, and Los Angeles were 3.5-point favorites in both games. San Francisco won both of those games outright, including just a few weeks ago in Week 18. In the NFC Championship Game, the Rams opened as… you guessed it. The 49ers have had the Rams’ number of late, winning the last six contests in a row. In fact, Rams coach Sean McVay has never beaten the 49ers. Never. Because of this, the Rams probably have more pent-up frustration and angst than the crowd at the When We Were Young Festival.
The Rams, as we know, are built to win now, especially considering they don’t have a first round draft pick for years to come (which might be when Adele actually plays a Vegas concert). This could be a now-or-never type of situation for the Matthew Stafford and his crew, and the bettors are buying in. Thus far, despite their struggles with the boys from NorCal, the early money is coming in on Los Angeles (heck, Alabama had Georgia’s number for years, too, and we saw how that turned out).
“If Kansas City happens to beat Cincinnati and the Rams happen to beat San Francisco, it’ll not only be the second straight year that a team is playing the Super Bowl in its home stadium, it will also be the second straight year Kansas City would have to face that team in their home stadium,” Esposito said. For those with short memories, Kansas City came in second place of the two teams in last year’s big game.
NFL Draft Props
Don’t be a draft dodger! With the NFL Draft set to take place in Vegas April 28-30, Station Casinos is ready to be the NFL Draft Headquarters in the coming months. In fact, STN App users can even bet on whose name will come off the board first. Currently, Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson and Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux are the odds-on favorites to go No. 1, but Alabama’s Evan Neal has the third highest odds and is a real possibility to go numero uno, at least according to some mock drafts. The top pick in the NFL Draft is owned by the Jacksonville Jaguars yet again, but every team will have a Las Vegas presence this spring. Stations, too, will be all over it. Whether its first round picks, blockbuster trades, or Bud Light, Station Casinos will be the home to all things draft-related.
Clear Separation
The difference between good and bad has never been more pronounced, but this has nothing to do with the Kardashian sister’s taste in men. We’re talking about hockey. After years and years of parity, there is a stark contrast between the haves and have nots. “I don’t know if it’s more COVID driven or just having another expansion team in the league, but there’s a clear separation of these teams,” Esposito said. Over the past weekend, the Colorado Avalanche were -650 against Montreal. In other words, a bet of $6.50 would net you $1 if you won the wager. On Jan. 25, the Penguins were almost a $5 (-500) favorite over the Coyotes. Esposito said, “You’re seeing on a daily basis these lines of $3 or more. That Colorado game was more than $6. The Pittsburgh game was $5. This is kind of unheard of so early in the season to see such a difference between the top tier teams and the bottom.”
Bets To Know
As the draft approaches here in Vegas, be on the lookout for other opportunities to have fun and make money on the app and in our books.
STN Sports Weekly Winners
Here’s the $100 8-team parlay ticket, bet on January 24:
– KINGS +1.5 (-170)
– KNIGHTS +1.5 (-200)
– DUCKS +1.5 (-115)
– VIRGINIA -4 (-130)
– OLE MISS +5 (-130)
– WAKE FOREST -10.5 (-110)
– THUNDER +1.5 (-110)
– PACERS +5 (-150)
The bettor collected $7,635 on the ticket!