Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money .
STN Sports Weekly Rundown
February 16, 2022
“When you wish upon a star, makes no difference who you are. Anything your heart desires will come to you.”
As the Los Angeles Rams were headed to Disneyland in the immediate aftermath of Super Bowl LVI, the Station Casinos Sports Book was headed to the bank. Going into the game, the Book was fearful of the Bengals winning a high-scoring game. In a perfect world, at least for the Book, the game would stay under the 48.5 total and the Rams would be victorious by a field goal or less. That’s exactly what happened with L.A. winning 23-20.
“If you wanted to script a Hollywood ending, you couldn’t script it any better,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. Granted, he was speaking about Los Angeles’ game-winning drive, but he could have just as easily been talking about the Sports Book’s big day. With the Super Bowl wrapped up, let’s quickly look over the sports world’s landscape and take a peek at what’s ahead on the field (because it’s never too early), on the ice, on the court, on the STN App and at the Station Casinos Sports Book.
Record Day
A broken record never sounded so good. Super Bowl LVI was the most-bet game in Nevada history, besting the previous No.1 game by a landslide. The state’s 179 books took $179.8 million in wagers for the big game, easily surpassing the previous record of $158.6 million set in 2018 when the Philadelphia Eagles outpaced the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII.
“I think it’s a number of factors. I think it really comes back to the total acceptance of sports wagering, and there are so many more guests that are educated about it. I think that was a big piece of it,” Esposito said. “The in-play betting helps, as do the prop bets, since there are more available. The willingness of properties throughout the state to take higher limits is also a big part of it. The mask mandate is gone and occupancy is no longer at 50 percent, so I think there was really a perfect storm to get to that number.”
Apart from last year’s COVID-influenced game, the Super Bowl handle continues to go up. By the end of Super Bowl LVII next year, there might be a new betting record and the $179.8 million handle could be wiped out faster than Kyler Murray’s Instagram.
Full Kupp
Did the right man win MVP? There’s no doubt that Cooper Kupp deserved to be in the Most Valuable Player conversation when the clock struck 0.00, but there was a case to be made for Aaron Donald. The best player in the NFL (don’t @ me!) recorded two sacks and made the final two plays of the game to seal a Rams win. He led a defense that held Cincinnati’s potent offense scoreless for the final 25 minutes of the game. Like Joey Chesnut and a plate of hot dogs, Donald devoured Cincy’s offense line.
It’s certainly possible that Donald’s MVP chances took a hit due to Von Miller’s two-sack game. The men may have split votes, leading the way for an offensive player to get the hardware. And Cupp is worthy of the honor, having hauled in two touchdowns, including the game winner. His clutch fourth down run kept L.A. alive on the final drive, too. “I was glad it was Cupp,” Esposito noted. “We would not have done well if it was Donald. We had a lot more liability on him than Cupp.”
No Prop-lem
So, you didn’t want to bet the spread or the total? No prop-lem! For Super Bowl LVI, Station Casinos offered over 1,000 ways to bet the game, and guests pounced on a few key props. Three bets saw a significant amount of action: guests bet there would a safety, they bet that the game would go to overtime and they bet that there would be a successful two-point conversation. All of those were losers in the end.
“The sharp bettors did a lot of unders on offensive props and overall they did well on those,” Esposito said. There were some heightened heartbeats on the oddsmakers side of the counter when the Rams were stuck at 16 points for a while. “Some guests had bet the Rams would score exactly 16 points or 19 points, which are unusual numbers, and the Rams were hovering in that area,” Esposito said. “We would have paid mid-six figures if those would have panned out.” In the end, the Rams landed on 23 points, which isn’t that uncommon of an NFL total. That paid out 18 to 1. Had the game ended with the Rams notching just 16 points, the payout would have been 75 to 1.
(Long)Shot in the Dark
Much like your chances of landing Halle Berry, some things are a straight up long shot. The vast majority of long shot bets didn’t cash on Sunday, but there was still money to be made. For instance, Stations offered a trifecta bet tied to Matt Stafford that hit. In that bet (which was similar to a parlay,) the Rams had to win and Stafford had to throw a TD and notch over 278.5 yards through the air. That hit and paid +350 (you win $3.50 for every $1 bet). Although Odell Beckham Jr. went out of the game early with an injury, he was responsible for fattening some pocketbooks, too. OBJ had 3 to 1 odds to score a touchdown in the first half, and he had 8 to 1 odds to score the first touchdown of the game. “Bettors bet him heavily for the first score of the game, so they did well on that,” Esposito said. “That’s been a common trend in Super Bowls. Bettors have been good about getting the player with the first touchdown right. Beckham was a very, very popular choice.”
Sharps vs. Public
While the environment inside the Station Casinos Sports Books was electric on Sunday, it was a tale of sharp bettors vs. the general public (West Side Story, it was not). The sharp bettors were largely on the Rams and the under, whereas the general public was on the Bengals. How much did the public love Joe Burrow and Co.? Well, 55% of the point spread tickets were on Cincy, 58% of the tickets were on the over, and 70% of the moneyline tickets were on Cincy. Station Sports Books also saw multiple six-figure bets on both teams. The biggest single bet came through Red Rock, in which a bettor wagered $250,000 on the Rams -4, which was obviously unsuccessful. On the other side, several six-figure bets on the Bengals with the spread cashed. The largest single bet on the total also hit. A guest bet $88,000 that the total would go under 48.5. That guest pocketed a cool $80,000. Interestingly, this was the first time since 2009 where the underdog covered the point spread but failed to win outright. That hasn’t happened since the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Arizona Cardinals but failed to cover the touchdown spread.
$ame $ong and Dan¢e
Don’t tell me we don’t make you money. In a previous Steven Money scroll, we noted this trend: the last team to score in the Super Bowl had won 12 straight games. It’s now 13 straight! And, we told you the team to score first in the big game was 8-4. They are now 9-4 over the last 13 years. Those paid -230 and -160, respectively. You’re welcome – now buy me dinner.
2023 Odds
Being in Sunset Station’s Sonoma Cellar is great. Being in the NFL cellar isn’t good. The Cincinnati Bengals came into the 2021-22 season fourth from the bottom in terms of Super Bowl odds. In other words, they came out of nowhere to win the AFC and came within a whisker of being crowned champs. Which begs the question: which teams are we already overlooking next season? This one is difficult, based on the uncertainly of the quarterback market. Where is Aaron Rodgers gonna play? Is Russell Wilson and his wife gonna ‘1, 2 Step’ their way to another team? Jimmy Garoppolo is looking for a new zip code to call home, too. There are a lot of unknowns. Teams like Pittsburgh, Denver and Tampa Bay might just be a quarterback away from competing, much like the Rams were.
“You look at the fourth team from the bottom for next season, it’s the Detroit Lions. And the reason I’m gonna throw that team out there is because they have odds of 100 to 1 or greater industrywide, and because they play a division that has the Bears and Vikings, both of which have brand new general managers and brand new head coaches,” Esposito said. “So although the Vikings are a very talented bunch still, you don’t know exactly how everything’s going to go there. And then there are the Packers, who should the overwhelming favorite, but if Rogers and [free agent] Davante Adams aren’t there, it is a way different Packers team. That NFC North suddenly becomes wide open. The uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers is the reason the Packers aren’t one of the top teams in next season’s odds.” Matthew Stafford not withstanding, the last time we saw a Lion in a Super Bowl was when Katy Perry rode in on a metallic cat during her halftime show in 2015. Even then, the lion was upstage by the left shark.
Trade Machine
The trade that everyone thought might happen actually happened. James Harden is now a Philadelphia 76er, and Ben Simmons is a Brooklyn Net. The trade benefits both teams, according to Esposito. “Philly needed another scorer to go with Joel Embid, and Brooklyn needed something else. They’ve really been struggling,” he added. “This is one of those trades where both teams win.” The Eastern conference is still anyone’s game, with the top eight teams being separated by seven games. That eighth team is the Nets right now. Let’s be honest, that is a stacked eighth seed, especially when Kevin Durant returns from injury.
The Eichel Era
The newest version of the Vegas Golden Knights is upon us, as superstar Jack Eichel finally takes the ice. However, captain Mark Stone is on the long term injured reserve list, so he’s out for some time. “While the lines on the ice will change, they shouldn’t change that much on the betting lines,” Esposito noted. The VGK have a month before the trade deadline, and there still could be new faces on bench. “I think the Knights still have to figure it out,” the Station oddsmaker said. “I think because these guys are all relatively healthy and going to come back around the trade deadline, I think the Knights are gonna have to be active around that point.”
Bets To Know
With the Vegas Golden Knights back after the All-Star break, Jack Eichel has stepped on to the ice. Be on the lookout for Eichel props, along with other player and team props, as VGK battle towards the trade deadline.
STN Sports Weekly Winners
We’re going BACK to the future(s) with this bet!
Back on January 30, 2021, an STN Sports bettor laid down $500 on the LA Rams to win the Championship at 20 to 1.
As we know, LA took it home and so did this bettor – they CASHED for $10,500!