Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money.

STN Sports Weekly Rundown

March 9, 2022

*Needed: Medical attention. Patient: The Station Casinos Sports Book. Symptoms: Whiplash.*

Just when you thought there would be a slight lull in the sports world, the NFL did its thing on a random Tuesday. Within about two hours, Aaron Rodgers ended his Green Bay hostage crisis, Russell Wilson was suddenly on a Rocky Mountain High and Mike Williams had $60 million reasons to be happy. Repeat: Within TWO hours. This week was supposed to be about anything but the pigskin — maybe Coach K’s home finale or the chaotic end to the Bryant/Wagner game— but apparently, like 99% of your Instagram followers, the NFL hates when it doesn’t get attention. What a drama queen! On the heels of the NFL’s drama-filled day, let’s quickly look over the sports world’s landscape and take a peek at what’s ahead on the field, on the ice, on the court, on the STN App and at the Station Casinos Sports Book.

QB Shuffle
On March 8, we all woke up to a world in which Aaron Rodgers was still unvaccinated undecided about his future, but word came just before 9 a.m. that Mr. Discount Double Check was staying in Green Bay. The effect on the Sports Book was immediate: The Packers’ futures odds dropped drastically, and they’re now the favorite to win the NFC, just ahead of the Rams. Not only that; Pittsburgh’s and Denver’s odds were immediately raised, as both were rumored to be losers in the Rodgers sweepstakes.

“His best chance to win is in the NFC,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. But then a funny thing happened a, uh, mile high. Less than two hours after the Broncos’ odds shot up, they dropped faster than a TikTok dance following a monumental trade that saw them getting Russell Wilson. The betting fallout from that trade: Seattle’s 2023 Super Bowl odds skyrocketed (that’s a bad thing), as they’re now fourth from the bottom, and, per the odds, they’re the least likely team to win the NFC. Yep, dead last. How many ways can you say “rebuild?” The Wilson trade also shook up the AFC West, with the Raiders and Chargers seeing their odds go higher than Snoop Dogg at a music festival. Vegas and L.A. are seemingly less likely to win their division after the shakeup. The Broncos, by the way, are now among the favorites to the win the AFC, behind Buffalo and their AFC West rival Kansas City. So Denver’s odds started Tuesday in top third of the AFC scrum, then dropped to the lower third, then became third. The Broncos odds were like construction barrels in Las Vegas: All over the place.

Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World
Buckle up, the Madness is beginning. Hell, the Madness has begun. Last weekend, North Carolina spoiled Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game at Cameron Indoor Stadium by not only covering the double-digit spread, but winning outright. Talk about not getting the proper treatment (which never happens at our spas, for the record.) The Station Sports Books, though, were seeing dollar signs.

“We did really well on that one,” Esposito noted. As we’ve noted in this column time and time again, there is no can’t-miss team in college basketball this year. “The conferences are going to be so wide open,” Esposito continued. “There’s so much parity in college basketball right now. You can make a case for 15 to 18 schools to win it all. There’s probably about 50 schools that have circled in and out of the top 20 this year.” While we don’t know who’s in or who’s out of the tournament yet, we do know that Station Casinos is college basketball central! Right now, the book has the most liability on Duke and UCLA.

“I still think Duke is one of the best teams in the country, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them make a little bit of noise,” Esposito said. Maybe Coach K’s finale won’t be spoiled after all… Duke is currently one of the favorites to win it all, but they are behind a few teams out west (Zags, ‘Zona) and few SEC squads. Isn’t the SEC supposed to be a football conference??

Home Cooking
The NBA’s version of home cooking might be better than your grandma’s. Home teams are covering at a blistering rate of late. Against the spread last week, home teams were 30-20-1, hitting at a 60% clip. Home favorites were even better, covering the line 62.9% of the time. Favorites overall (home and away) weren’t too shabby either, as they were covering 58% of the time. “The NBA has really been dominated by the home teams and favorites so far this year,” Esposito said.

That’s Bull
At the beginning of March, the Chicago Bulls were leading the Eastern Conference. Now they’re fighting to even have home court in the first round of the playoffs following a string of losses at the wrong time. What has happened there? Part of it is that teams like Miami, Philadelphia and Milwaukee are ascending, but the Bulls are becoming the Conor McGregor of the NBA: they’re looking less and less threatening.

“I’m really worried about Chicago. It might be a little smoke and mirrors,” Esposito said, noting the Bulls have lost to the 76ers, Bucks, Jazz, Suns, Heat and Warriors. “They have not played well against the upper echelon teams. You have to beat up who’s in front of you,” the oddsmaker asserted. “When it comes to the postseason, I think you’ll see considerably higher odds on the Bulls because they just haven’t been able to beat any of the good teams.”

Last Man Standing
Nobody wants someone who doesn’t last long, right? Guests can now sign up for the Men’s Last Man Standing competition for NCAA Basketball Tournament! For the low, low price of $25, players can purchase an entry into the winner-take-all competition in person at any Station Casinos property or Station-run sports books. Bettors can increase their chances of winning by purchasing multiple entries. Any contestant who purchases four entries will receive a fifth entry free. Contestants will make picks against the spread every day of the tournament, from March 17 to March 20. For those still in the running and haven’t lost, the daily picks will continue from March 24 to March 27, as well as April 2 and April 4. Think of it like standing in the DMV line: the goal of the day is to move forward! Although the grand prize won’t be known until all entries are in, the pot is expected to exceed $50,000. If more than one bettor has a perfect tournament, the pot will be split. Get while the gettin’s good.

Bets To Know

STN Sports Weekly Winners

– 1H UCLA -4
– N CAR OVER 152
– N CAR +11.5
– 1H UCONN -5.5
– OREGON OVER 135
– WARRIORS OVER 228.5
– BLAZERS OVER 233.5
– SPURS OVER 237.5