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STN Sports Weekly Rundown

March 15, 2023

March Hoops Begins As No. 1 Overall Seed Poses Liability Risk

Of the 68 colleges vying for the NCAA basketball national championship, a few top squads will undoubtedly see an early exit, and a couple unexpected teams will make deep runs worthy of a Hollywood script. It happens every year.

Just know that for the next few weeks college basketball will be everything, everywhere all at once.

With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back at the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books…

The Madness Begins!

Big spreads are like airport bathrooms when you really need to go: they’re few and far between. In fact, only one opening round game (Kansas vs. Howard) has a line higher than 20 points. Since the March Madness field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, this is the fewest 20+ point spreads ever.

“You’re seeing so many more single digit spreads than you have in the past,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director. “The parity of the the tournament is really evident now.” As no team has been really that dominant, per se, this could be the year of a sleeper team. “Duke is a fifth seed and getting a lot of love with the way they’re playing right now,” Esposito said. “I would say some of the sleepers right now are Duke, Creighton and UConn.”

As the tallest team in the tournament, Duke is bigger than the Brownie Bowl Sundae at Boulder Station’s Broiler. Having won nine straight, the Blue Devils are firing better than an NFL owner on Black Monday. But their first round opponent, Oral Roberts, is riding a 17-game winning streak and the Golden Eagles are gliding into the tournament like Air Force One.

Upset Alerts?

Although Cinderella stories get the sexy headlines in the tournament, guests predominantly back favorites in March. But, they’re also aware of the trends. Station Sports Books are expected to see decent action on the always-vogue 12 seeds (Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake and VCU), as the 12 vs. 5 matchup often produces upsets. Coincidentally, a 5 seed has never cut down the nets — they eventually collapse faster than Silicon Valley Bank.

Still, as the old adage goes, those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it. Here’s the history: Each of the past five champions have been a No. 1 seed; twelve of the last 15 champs have been a No. 1 seed; six of the past eight champions were NOT conference champions, but rather at-large teams; it’s been 10 years since the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament has won the National Championship. The No. 1 overall seed this year is Alabama. “Although we talk about all the parity and David against Goliath, No. 1 one seeds are still pretty dominant in the end, having won 29 of the last 43 titles,” Esposito said.

Problem Children

A few teams pose a real problem for the Station Casinos Sports Books, but perhaps none more so than Alabama. The Tide are the No. 1 overall seed and one of the favorites to be crowned champions. At one point in November, their championship odds were 60-to-1, and fans bet it. Purdue and Penn State also provide some liability.

The Nittany Lions, by the way, are the most experienced team in the tournament with their players averaging four years of Division 1 experience because of the transfer portal. Experience matters in March. Purdue, however, is a team the Esposito is leery of, as the Boilermakers seem to have more March defects than the Harmon Hotel.

Also, Baylor and Kansas State’s Final Four plans might be diminished (by history, at least), as they both lost their opening round conference games. No team has ever cut down the nets after losing an opening conference game. Also, Houston from the American Conference and Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference don’t exactly have history on their side. It’s been 33 years since the tournament champion came from a conference that received fewer than four bids. Both the American Conference and WCC only have two bids.

Last Man Standing Last Chance

There’s still time! Guests can sign up for the Men’s Last Man Standing competition for NCAA Basketball Tournament! For the low, low price of $25, players can purchase an entry into the winner-take-all competition in person at any Station Casinos property or Station-run sports books. Bettors can increase their chances of winning by purchasing multiple entries. Any contestant who purchases four entries will receive a fifth entry complimentary.

The last man (or woman) standing will win a guaranteed prized of $50,000. The pot will be split in the event there are multiple winners.

NFL’s Old Faces in New Places

While Aaron Rodgers has the Jets in a holding pattern, a slew of NFL players have new addresses. Jimmy Garoppolois now a Las Vegas Raider, and Darren Waller is a Giant. Jalen Ramsey now calls 305 home, and Stephon Gilmore will have a star on his helmet next season. However, this offseason is all about Rodgers.

In the Jets case, they’ve gone all in on Rodgers, who seems to be interested in only two options: playing for New York or retiring. The numbers at the Station Casinos Sports Books are assuming that he opts to become a member of gang green. Right now, the New York/East Rutherford Jets are only behind the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals in the AFC future book odds.

The writing is certainly on the wall, particularly given that New York just signed Allen Lazard, A-Rod’s favorite target in Green Bay last season. Randall Cobb and Odell Beckham Jr. is also rumored to be on the Jets’ radar. “If he decides to retire or if Green Bay doesn’t trade him, the Jets are really behind the eight ball,” Esposito says.

The Broncos, a team that went 5-12 last season, continue to be a popular team in the future’s book market. Although Russell Wilson was, well, awful last year, bettors think he can go all Daylight Savings and turn back time. Not only do the Broncos have a new coach, they’ve been beefing up the offensive line to protect Wilson. “They’ve been the hot team as the future book goes,” Esposito said. In fact, you can make a case that despite the Raiders’ Garoppolo signing, Vegas is still fourth in their division, behind Kansas City, Los Angeles and Denver.

Star-less Memphis

Ja Morant has been away from the Memphis Grizzles since he flashed a gun in a Colorado nightclub on March 3. Having entered a counseling program, there is no timetable for his return to the team, which currently hold the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. The Grizz are still managing to win games without its All Star, but spreads have been affected and bettors are more reluctant to wager on Memphis. From a Book standpoint, Morant’s availability is worth about four points to the spread.

“It has definitely had an impact,” Esposito said on Morant’s absence. “The fact that he’s not playing right now is going to be factored into the line, but with or without him, bettors are still looking for either value with or against, depending on who Memphis is playing and what the line is.”

Bets To Know

It’s all about College Hoops, and the menu is huge on the STN Sports App. Be on the lookout for daily updates throughout the tournament, including props and futures.

Weekend Winners

Congrats to this STN Sports bettor who hit this cross-sport parlay. $15.07 bets $1,788.44 collect!

– ISLANDERS OV 5.5 -120

– STARS OV 6.5 -115

– OILERS -210

– BRUINS OV 6 -105

– SENATORS OV 7 -115

– MAGIC OV 233 -110

– LAKERS OV 227 -110

– BUCKS -125