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STN Sports Weekly Rundown

March 22, 2023

Unders, Underdogs, And An All Time Madness Bad Beat

That Tuesday drizzle in Las Vegas was nothing compared to the downpour of betting that’s happening during March Hoops at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books. “The handle has just been phenomenal, and the crowds have been amazing,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director.
“The tournament overall is probably only second to the Super Bowl in terms of the biggest event that we have all year. When the underdogs start winning, the atmosphere is second to none.” And, there were a lot of underdogs (and unders) cashing tickets. With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back at the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books…

Favorite Underdogs

It’s no secret that the NFL is king in terms of betting, but marquee matchups during March Madness can have more consequences than a hush money payment. In terms of handle, the first and second round games can be equivalent to an NFL game — in some cases, the handles is more in line with a standalone NFL games, which almost always see increased interest.

Including the First Four matchups, favorites delivered for bettors during the opening rounds, going 27-25 against the spread and 36-16 straight up. Of those underdogs still alive the tournament, Florida Atlantic and Princeton are unlikely candidates, particularly given their respective seeds of 9 and 15. “It really goes to the show you that Cinderella is alive and well,” Esposito said.

Going Under

Guests who wagered on the overs in the NCAA Tournament crashed and burned. Through the Fist Four game and the first two rounds the Under went 35-17. “I think it’s the depth perception in some of these stadiums that players are unfamiliar with,” Esposito said, trying to pinpoint a reason for the low totals. “I’ve heard it before that when teams haven’t played in some of these bigger venues they struggle, especially early in the game and especially from the three-point line.”

Need further proof? Michigan State, who has the second-best three-point shooting percentage of the field of 68, was able to beat Marquette after going 1-for-15 from beyond the arc. Based on that stat alone, the result of the Spartans/Golden Eagles is more confusing than the diverging diamond on Tropicana.

The Beats Have Gone Bad

What would a tournament be without a bad beat, amirite! And boy did we get one. The final game of the second round should have been tough cover for Gonzaga bettors, but a cover nonetheless. The Zags entered the game as 4.5-point favorites and were up by 6 with .7 seconds left in the game (less than a second!) TCU proceeded to inbound the ball from the length of the court. Rather than catch the inbound pass let the game end, TCU let the ball roll down the court, which kept the clock from starting. Then, from deep, TCU picked up the ball and hurled it at the hoop. It went in. 84-81 final. With one shot, TCU caused more heartburn than a lunch at Raising Cane’s.

“I’ve been doing this so long that the tournament as a whole never surprises me,” Esposito said. “To be the last game of the weekend and cap it off that way clearly shows that anything can happen and to expect the unexpected.” As the guests were primarily on Gonzaga, the bad beat was a bit of a Love Story (Taylor’s Version) to the Book. Incidentally, of the Sweet Sixteen teams, Gonzaga is the only one with a losing ATS record.

Book Loss

Although Princeton’s upset win against Arizona was a windfall for the Book, the same couldn’t be said for Fairleigh Dickinson’s 63-58 win over top-seeded Purdue, a game that’s gone down as the biggest upset by point spread in NCAA Tournament history. FDU entered the game as a 16 seed and a 23.5-point underdog. On the money line, they had 21-to-1 odds. In tournament history, only three times has an underdog of 20 or more won outright. Still, bettors treated the Boilermakers’s like Las Vegans treat wind advisories: They were ignored.

“Purdue was sort of thought of as the worst of the No. 1 seeds. There was a lot of Fairleigh Dickinson moneyline play, so that was not a good outcome for us,” Esposito said. Still, although some of those moneyline bets were tied to parlays that didn’t hit, that Fairleigh Dickinson win was costlier than a Strip casino’s Formula 1 package.

Gimme Tenn!

The Sports Book might want to consider volunteering after this past weekend. The single biggest win of the weekend for Station came via Duke’s loss to Tennessee. “Guests just loaded up on Duke. Duke was the school that everybody was backing and there was a lot of hype that they were gonna be a Final Four team,” Esposito said. “Everyone was betting them before the game, in-play and in the second half. The way the Volunteers played in those final 10 minutes was huge for us.” The Blue Devils looked worse than a UNLV frat boy after a couple St. Patty’s Day Irish Car Bombs.

Early Money

The Sweet Sixteen is here (literally!) Although there hasn’t been a huge point shift at Station Sports Books in regard to the spreads, bettors are backing favorite Alabama and underdog Arkansas. Razorbacks bettors are just hoping not to lose their shirts as Eric Musselman seems to do. Esposito, who still has three of his four Final Four teams alive, continues to eyeball 6-seeded Creighton as a sleeper team. “They were overlooked because they didn’t play great earlier in the season, but they’re an experienced team,” he said.

Home Sweet Home

T-Mobile Arena is the site of the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, and Las Vegas got a draw better than a suited Ace/King on the blackjack table. You could easily argue that the city has the sexiest slate of regional games in the country, with matchups of Gonzaga/UCLA and Arkansas/UConn.

“Arkansas is really good. Although I like Connecticut a lot, I think these two matchups are both great, and any one of these four teams could be a team that’s playing in the Final Four,” Esposito opined. “And there’s definitely three of them that easily could be cutting down the nets in end.” Gonzaga, you’ll recall, played at T-Mobile in 2021 against Duke, and its supporters came out in droves. Despite UCLA’s proximity to Vegas, it’s highly likely that the Bulldogs fans might take over The Fortress once again. UConn and UCLA are both about one-possession favorites in their respective games.

Bets To Know

The offerings continue to roll in during the second weekend of the tournament. Updated matchups, props, futures, and more are available for the 16 remaining teams in the tourney on the STN Sports App.

Weekly Winners

Check out this impressive college tourney parlay over the weekend! $50 to win $2,093.75, with favorites and upsets throughout the 5 legs:

– KANSAS ST. +145

– MICH ST. +150

– FAIR DICKENSON +15.5 -110

– UCONN -4.5 -110

– CREIGHTON -1 -110