Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money.

“The bottom line is that March Madness being called March Madness is totally madness this year,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director. “You can almost make a case that there’s four sets of Cinderella’s in this year’s tournament. I know I talk about David against Goliath, but David’s made up a lot of ground against Goliath over the last decade.”

With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back at the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books…

Long Shots
For the first time in five years, no No. 1 seed will be playing in the Final Four. This year, those so-called top teams got rocked like a Life Is Beautiful festival crowd. The 2023 Final Four teams of San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, Miami and UConn were all pretty decent long shots to cut down the nets just weeks ago. Miami opened the NCCA Tournament with odds of 125-to-1; San Diego State opened with 80-to-1 odds; UConn opened at 45-to-1 odds; shockingly, ninth-seeded FAU had the shortest odds, but that’s because they weren’t even initially listed — they were among the “field” teams with 40-to-1 odds.

“There are definitely some guests with big smiles on their faces right now,” Esposito said. As none of these squads were thought of as dragon slayers, very little action was on them at long odds. “We don’t have any liability on any of the four,” Esposito said. “We’re in tremendous shape with San Diego State and Florida Atlantic, and we’re small winters on UConn and Miami. Overall we’re in a good spot.” Not even a doctor’s office has long shots like these four.

Betting Behavior
Although large bets are expected to be placed on the Final Four contests, particularly on Monday, guests typically don’t unload on single games during March. “We have a lot of five figure bets, but guests kind of spread their bank rolls out over the course of the tournament,” Esposito said. “We’ll likely see increased bets for the final three games.”

Follow The Money
Thus far, the SDSU/FAU and Miami/UConn lines are standing more firm than an overcooked steak. Initial money came in on the suddenly-popular FAU Owls, but the Book is expecting a swell of Aztecs money. In the Miami/UConn showdown, there’s suspicion that Miami backers might be more fearless than Taylor Swift.

“I think you are going to see some Miami money come in. Miami has knocked off Texas and Houston in back to back games,” Esposito said. “They’re very athletic and run the court. I think that they can match up a little bit in size with Connecticut…. You might see a lot of people who like Miami just because of the point value.”

Still, Esposito predicts a UConn win, and, should that happen he expects a pretty high point spread in the National Championship. Clearly, the hierarchy of college basketball is changing faster than a Red Rock restaurant lineup. Of course, seeing that this is the Final Four, the betting menu won’t just be limited to spreads and totals, as a full page of props will be up for both Saturday games and Monday’s “One Shining Moment” championship game.

A Tale of Two “Total” Weekends
While the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament were dominated by totals going under, the the opposite was seen in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games. Game scores went higher than the Mt. Charleston snowpack, as overs went 8-4. And guests were on the overs. In fact, Sunday’s San Diego State/Creighton game saw so much over play that it had oddsmakers sweating like a guest at Rouge Cabanas in the summer. “Keeping that San Diego State game under was paramount for us,” Esposito said. “Keeping that game under was probably the difference in having a really good day or just a fair day.” The under cleared by more than 20 points.

Last Man Standing Update
With only three games remaining, eight guests are still alive in Station Casino’s Last Man Standing contest. Should there be multiple people still standing after the Monday, the pot will be divided.

Opening Day
The sports world is about to see more strikes than a Los Angeles school district. Major League Baseball’s Opening Day is upon us yet again, and the games can now be bet on on the STN Sports App and at Station Casinos Race and Sports Books. One fun scheduling caveat is that guests can tie early baseball games to hockey or basketball. Or, they can tied to the Men’s or Women’s Final Four. How about an all Miami bet, say the Marlins to the Hurricanes? Or a Padres to Aztecs parlay?

While it’s no surprise that the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers and Braves are supposed to be good, there is one unexpected team peeking bettor’s interests in the future’s book. “One of the teams getting some love is the Rangers with the moves they made in the offseason, especially picking up Jacob deGrom,” Esposito said. “They’ve been definitely getting some love as far as the future book goes.” No doubt about it, major league betting takes balls.

Bets To Know
It’s Opening Day and it’s all about Pro Baseball. The STN Sports team is expanding to give our largest menu for baseball to date. Check the app for all offerings.

Weekly Winners
8 leg parlay appreciation. $15 —> $2,076.63 for this STN Sports hockey bettor last night:

– Blue Jackets OV 6.5 -120

– Flyers -165

– Canucks OV 7 EV

– Sharks +1.5 -150

– Stars -1.5 -115

– Flames UN 6 -105

– Lightning +120

– Flames -130