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STN Sports Weekly Rundown

March 30, 2022

… And then there were four. If bettors want to see green, they’re first going to have to go blue… as in blue bloods! The NCAA Finals is literally a who’s who of college basketball’s top hierarchy, with Kansas, Duke, Villanova and North Carolina remaining. Pick your favorite shade of blue and roll the dice!

“You could not have scripted this any better,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. “I’d like to have the movie rights.” Of course, the majority of attention will be on Duke and Mike Krzyzewski, as he has either one or two games left in his legendary career, and he’s going to have to go through archrival North Carolina — you know, the team that spoiled his final home game at Cameron Indoor Stadium a few weeks ago. UNC, who is somehow playing Duke for the first time ever in the tournament, would love nothing more than to put the final nail in K’s coaching coffin. Sadly, what this means is that we’re also at the end of the tournament. Still, there are plenty of meaningful sports on deck.

With all that in mind, let’s quickly look over the sports world’s landscape and take a peek at what’s ahead on the field, on the court, on the ice, on the STN App and at the Station Casinos Sports Book.

Hoop Dreams
As soon as the Kansas/Villanova line was set, money poured in on the Jayhawks. Bettors, it seems, are leery of the Wildcats squad without junior guard Justin Moore, who is out for the rest of the tournament with a torn Achilles. Moore is second on the team in terms of scoring and assists, and he’s ‘Nova’s third-leading rebounder. These kinds of guys don’t grow on trees. “Villanova really only runs about seven deep,” Esposito said, “so taking one of those key components out of the equation really hurts Villanova.” Of course, Nova can still be competitive and even win as two-possession underdogs, but Jay Wright is going to have to inspire his guys. Think of Villanova like Frontier Airlines — it can get you where you need to be, but it might not be a comfortable ride. “If Moore was healthy, I probably would favor Nova just because of Villanova’s style of play. They really slow down the game,” Esposito said.

Plus, Nova knows how to shoot the ball, as they’re the No. 1 shooting team ever in the history of the tournament. Jay Wright’s guys are also essentially automatic at the free throw line. In the event that the refs call this game tight and fouls are called, Nova could do some real damage from the charity stripe. If Moore was playing, by the way, the spread would have been closer to two-and-a-half points, Esposito theorized, adding, “Without him, I think that’s why we saw a little bit of a push on Kansas early.”

Bettors are also apparently ready to send Coach K off into retirement one game early, as there’s been an early push on North Carolina, who, like Nova, come into the game as a two-possession ‘dog. Esposito’s tip of the day: If you like Duke, bet them now, as the Station Sports Books and STN App are expecting a late push of Duke money, potentially moving the line even higher. Or, just bet them on the moneyline. Interestingly, the Sports Book might find itself in a position to cheer for Carolina to beat Duke and then hope they lose in the National Championship Game to Kansas or ‘Nova. The Tar Heels entered the tournament with 35-to-1 odds on winning it all, but their odds on the winning the title were as high as 150-to-1 during the regular season. If North Carolina wins the title, the Sports Book will get smacked harder than Chris Rock.

There’s a theory that says number 13 is synonymous with bad luck. Don’t tell that to the 13 contestants left in Station Casinos’ Last Man Standing competition. Back when the NCAA Men’s Tournament began, 2,643 contestants vied to win a prize of $53,375. All they had to do was pick one correct game against the spread every day during the tournament. Simple, right? Well, of those 2,643 entries, there are a baker’s dozen left. If more than one person is still standing once the winning team cuts down the nets, the pot will be split.

Easy come, easy go! That was basically the Sports Book last weekend during the Elite Eight. “We had a number of tickets bet in the $40,000 range,” Esposito said. One bettor cashed a $50,000 bet on North Carolina to cover against St. Peters. Other bettors didn’t have such luck, as Station Sports Books took in multiple $40,000 bets tied to Houston, who failed to cover against Villanova. “There were $40,000 bets on both sides,” Esposito said.

NFL Movement
You think Tyreek Hill is fast? You should have seen how fast the Sports Book lowered the odds on the Miami Dolphins when the wide receiver was traded last week. The Fins began that morning with 45-to-1 odds of winning the 2023 Super Bowl, and they soon were down to 30-to-1 odds. “I can’t personally ever remember a year with so many huge trades during in the offseason,” Esposito said. “It’s almost like a Madden franchise that you wake up every morning and there’s some big name guy getting moved.” In fairness, big guys moving is normal in a sumo wrestling contest, but not in the NFL. The Hill trade also raised the futures odds on the Chiefs, who are still the AFC West favorite, but the gap is narrowing. Just weeks ago, Kansas City was -650 to win the Super Bowl. Mahomes and Co. have steadily TikTok’d up and are now sitting at -900.

NBA Ch-ch-changes
On March 24, New York Mayor Eric Adams lifted the vaccine mandate for professional athletes and performers. Not only does that have ramifications in baseball (with opening day just a week away), it also helps out the Brooklyn Nets, as Kyrie Irving can now play home games, something he’s been unable to do all season due to his vax status. Now, from a gambling perspective, the decision didn’t really change much. “They were already the favorite in the Eastern Conference, and they still are,” Esposito said. The fact that the Nets currently sit eighth in the standings but are still the conference favorite is astounding. And, assuming they win the play-in game, they’ll likely face the No. 1 seeded team in the East… and the Nets will be favored. “The decision to lift the mandate dropped their odds just a touch, but that didn’t change their seeding or how we view them,” Esposito said. “I think the book and the bettors still look at them as one of the best teams not only the Eastern conference, but in the NBA when they’re healthy.”

While the Suns and Warriors seem to get all the positive press in the Western Conference, one hardly-talked-about team is very intriguing: Los Angeles… No, not THAT L.A. team. The other one. Like the Nets, the Clippers sit in the eighth spot in the conference but could be a team no one wants to play if they’re healthy. In addition, there are rumors in NBA circles claiming Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are practicing (George is likely to return for the final stretch of the regular season.) “You get both those two guys back, and although they might not be quite in game shape, the Clippers are not your prototypical eighth seed, and neither are the Nets. That is, of course, assuming it shakes out that way,” the Station oddsmakers said. The Clippers, for what it’s worth, currently have 50-to-1 odds to win the title, whereas the Nets have 7-to-2 odds, sitting behind only Phoenix.

Ice Dramatics
Their incredible comeback last weekend against the Blackhawks notwithstanding, the Vegas Golden Knights have an uphill battle. But they’re not out of the playoffs just yet. A quick look at the slate of upcoming opponents over the next two weeks include the Kraken (twice), Canucks (thrice), Coyotes and Sharks. These teams have more holes than a Caesars Palace residency slate (Hey Adele!). The biggest issue for the VGK, who are sitting in the last playoff spot, is that they’ve played more games than the two teams nipping at their heels, the Stars and Jets. With those games in hand, Dallas and Winnipeg can pile up points while the Knights sit idle. “The Knights need to take care of business at home and they might need some help from other teams,” Esposito said. The Knights chances of making the playoffs currently sit at about 40%… which is still higher than your chances of not cursing at other drivers while merging from I-15 to the 95.

The Links
Speaking of drivers, The Masters is almost here, and we are your unofficial Masters headquarters. In anticipation of the famed tournament, Station Sports Books are running a promotion — anyone who places a $25 bet on a golfer to win the Masters automatically gets a towel from me, Steven Money (wait, am I paying for these?). Anyway, the towel reads: “Drive for show, putt for dough.” Bettors who make four entries are eligible for a TaylorMade Golf Bag. The contest is happening at Station’s six big properties, so six bags will be given away. There will be no more math.

Bets To Know

STN Sports Weekly Winners

– Kansas -330
– St. Peters +625
– N. Carolina +115
– Flames -400
– Avalanche -420
– Jets -165
– Capitals -200
– Rangers EV