Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money .
STN Sports Weekly Rundown
April 26, 2023
NHL Parity is Welcome Sight For Book, Tanking on Fight Night, And More
Like seemingly every single Las Vegas street right now, the NBA and NHL playoffs are hard to navigate. The No. 1 seed in the NBA’s Eastern Conference is on the verge of elimination; over in the NHL, playoffs teams are bigger road warriors than Animal and Hawk of WWE’s Legion of Doom. The exception to the NHL right now? You guessed it, the Vegas Golden Knights.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back at the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books…
NHL Roadies
On the road again, just can’t wait to get on the road again… Honestly, Willie Nelson may as well have created that song for the NHL playoffs. Over the course of three nights, road teams went 11-1. Heck, in the Rangers-Devils series the road team has won every single game. Parity is a good thing for the Sports Books, but the one thorn in their side right now is the hometown team. Not only do the Vegas Golden Knights keep winning; they keep covering the puck line, which is not great for the oddsmakers.
“They just get a tremendous amount of backing every game,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director. “From the business side, we’re rooting against them every night. From that fan side, we want them to win by one goal. But, having them in the playoffs adds excitement to the casino.” VGK is the Walmart Supercenters of the Sports Books: You really want to hate them, but you can’t.
“It’s a little bit of a catch-22. When the Knights are winning and playing well, it adds a completely different element to the Book,” Esposito said. “Bettors are parlaying them, we’re putting all the props up, it demands the main screen with audio at our Books, you see more Knights gear, but just from the business side of it, we’re not always Knights fans.” Ok, Scrooge McChuck!
NBA Favorites Cashing
The NBA has been less friendly to the Sports Books than the NHL, as favorites are dominating the majority of the series. “We’re still rooting for the underdogs pretty much on a nightly basis in the NBA,” Esposito said, trying to will wins from Hawks, Cavs, Clippers and Grizzlies. “The Lakers have just been the killer for us so far.”
As if taunting the Books, the Lake Show delivered a bad beat on Monday night, as well. With just six seconds left in regulation and Memphis up by a bucket, LeBron James drove the floor to score a layup and forced overtime. In OT, the Lakers not only shut down Memphis like a Bed, Bath & Beyond, but they covered the 4.5-point line. Based on the flood of game-to-game wagers coupled with the liability the Lakers possess in the future’s book, Los Angeles is a legitimate problem for oddsmakers.
Fight Night
T-Mobile Arena was the site of boxing’s biggest fight of the year last weekend — Gervonta “Tank” Davis vs. Ryan Garcia — and it proved to be a windfall for the Book after Tank dropped Garcia like a Fox News and CNN news anchor. “We were definitely Tank fans, so the outcome for us was best-case scenario,” Esposito said. “We were in a position where we did have some liability with Garcia by knockout, Garcia by decision and Garcia to win.”
Just hours before the fight, bettors rushed the counters to bet Garcia. “So much money came in on him. The ticket count was probably 70% in favor of Garcia,” Esposito estimated. Both fights garnered five-figure bets, but from the House’s position, a Garcia win by decision or knockout would be about as disastrous as a second coming of that Siegfried and Roy show.
Skate or Die
Skateboarding, yes skateboarding, is available for wagering on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books — and you thought Red Rock Resorts and the Oakland A’s were the only one’s wheeling and dealing around here! Oddsmakers are letting guests wager on this weekend’s Street League Skateboarding final, which takes place in Chicago. The two odds-on favorites to win are Gustavo Ribeiro and Nyjah Huston. “We thought it would be an interesting prop,” Esposito said.
“We booked slap fighting not too long ago and now this. We’re always looking to expand the wagering menu.” Are we sure the oddsmakers weren’t hanging out with Jeff Spicoli recently? Those skateboarding guys will be Ridin’ Roads like Dustin Lynch this weekend at The Sandbar.
What’s On Draft?
Football never sleeps. The NFL Draft, one of the greatest soap operas in sports, returns on Thursday night, and we’re happier than Adam Sandler in that golfing movie. Over the past weeks, the Hub Team has continued to add prop bets tied to the draft, even including a wager tied to Bishop Gorman High School graduate (and UCLA alum) Dorian Thompson-Robinson. There’s a great bet based on the exact number of trades that the first round will see.
“I think that you’re going to see a lot of trades and you’re gonna see some star players traded, too,” Esposito said citing names like Trey Lance, Budda Baker or Delvin Cook, all of whom could be headed to new area codes. Typically the Book isn’t hugely profitable from the draft, but it adds a buzz to the casino floor and guests like it. That’s not to say that money can’t be made, particularly if you’ve been monitoring the rumors and mock drafts. What do the Jets and Packers do now that the Aaron Rodgers trade is final? (The trade, by the way, did little to change the Jets and Packers futures book odds, as Rodgers-to-the-Jets has been baked into the lines for months.) One value bet to take a second look at is tied to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Most mock draft experts believe Zay Flowers will be the first receiver off the board but Esposito thinks there’s a case to be made for Smith-Njigba. If the Ohio State product wasn’t injured last year, he might be a top-10 pick. This was a guy who caught 15 balls and went for 347 yards in the 2022 Rose Bowl. “I really think he’s the best receiver in the draft class,” Esposito said.
Bets to Know
It’s all about the draft. The STN Sports App appears to have one of the largest menu of draft options in Vegas, so take a look in the app to make the night more interesting. From team position selections to head-to-head player matchups to an over/under prop on the Vegas local Dorian Thompson-Robinson, there’s something for everyone.
Weekly Winners
Check out this Round Robin ticket from Monday night. $130 scored $17,286!
Round Robin 8×2, 6-8 65 Bets @ $2
– DEVILS +135
– KNIGHTS -1.5 +220
– KRAKEN +130
– HEAT +290
– ORIOLES EV (ACTION)
– GIANTS +108 (ACTION)
– D’BACKS UN 10EV (B KELLER/T HENRY)
– MARLINS OV 8 +105
