Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money .
STN Sports Weekly Rundown
June 15, 2022
Guests Are Feeling Golden Thanks to The Warriors, Plus More Sports Betting News
Amid a combination of favorites winning in baseball and the Golden State Warriors winning Game 5 of the NBA Finals, the Station Casinos Sports Book nearly had to wave the white flag one day ahead of Flag Day. The saving grace for the Book this week was Game 5 going under the 211 over/under, as 70 percent of the tickets pertaining to the total were on the over. “Keeping it under was really paramount,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. “The under was really one of the keys to averting a really, really bad day for us.” Bad days for the Book are usually good days for the guests. Let’s quickly look back over the sport’s landscape and take a peek at what’s ahead on the courts, on the ice, on the diamond and on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Book.
NBA Finality
Bettors are eating what Chef Curry (and his wife) have been cooking. Although early money has come in on the Celtics for Thursday’s Game 6, it’s all but expected that Warriors money will flood the market faster than the Imperial Palace parking garage during a rain storm (if you know, you know.) “We have been Celtics fans every game and we’re Celtic fans in the series, and I don’t see that changing at all,” Esposito said. “It’s all just been one-sided money.” A few guests fattened their wallets after Game 5, as the Station Sports Books saw several five-figure bets on the Warriors.
In sports betting, the spread is known as the great equalizer, but it no longer seems to matter in the National Basketball Association. After the Warriors 10-point win in Game 5, it marked the 27th straight NBA game in which the point spread didn’t matter, meaning the favorite covered the spread, or the underdog won outright. There has not been a game that fell within the point spread since May 9, but there was one push. “I can’t remember anything like this ever happening,” Esposito said. The spread that comes with your Einstein’s bagel has had more impact.
Cup Cometh
It feels like it’s been ages since the Colorado Avalanche played a hockey game, and bettors are noticing. Although the Avs come into the Stanley Cup Final as a significant favorite, guests backed Tampa Bay early on, moving Colorado series price and Game 1 price down. Thus far, 73 percent of bettors are rooting for Tampa in the series. For Game 1, 61 percent of guests are taking the Lightning, but 78 percent of the puck line bets are on Colorado. The Tampa lean isn’t a surprise to savvy bettors who don’t traditionally like teams with long layoffs, particularly if the team on the other side has championship mettle. The Avs will have had 11 days between games once the puck drops in Denver on Wednesday. This series is very clearly an offensive team vs a defensive team. “Tampa has a huge advantage in the crease with [Andrei] Vasilevskiy,” Esposito opined. “When you’re in a series like this, you always want a guy that can stand on his head and steal a game or steal the series, and that advantage clearly is with Tampa.” If anyone can dethrone the NHL’s two-time champs, it’s Colorado, a team that has essentially been the favorite to win the Cup all season. Plus, the layoff does give Nazem Kadri and Darcy Kuemper time to heel up. Esposito warns, “We just haven’t seen that as necessarily translating to success in the NHL when teams get some time to rest.” Having said that, how does Station’s top oddsmaker lean for the series? “I’m going to lean to whoever we need when they drop the puck,” he said, refusing to tip his hand. For what it’s worth, the Avs won both games against the Lightning this season.
The over/under for Game 1 is squarely pegged at 6. This is a more interesting total than you’ll find in the Vons cereal aisle. “I think if you were Tampa, you probably want to keep this game similar to the style of play that you saw with the Rangers, and if you’re Colorado, I think their style favors a more open style of game,” Esposito said. “Game 1 is in Colorado, so I could see maybe a little bit more of an open game when they’re there.” When these two played in the regular season, 12 total goals were scored. Fast math shows that they’re averaging six goals a game.
It’s A Hit
Talk about Hotlanta! On Tuesday, the Atlanta Braves rattled off their 13th straight win. The team is hotter than a skillet at Boulder Station’s Guadalajara. On Monday, one guest even placed a $20,000 bet on the Braves before the Nationals last-minute pitching change. The Braves are starting to play like the defending champs.
Over the past several weeks, the California Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim played some terrible baseball, so much so that they canned Manager Joe Madden. The struggles of the Angels were somewhat of a welcome sight to Station Casinos Sports Books, as Mike Trout and Co. were a big liability. The Book also has some deep (dish) liability on the Cubs, but the chances of Harry Carey’s favorite team winning the trophy this season is less likely than Wrigley Field going sober. “Baseball is historically the most difficult sport for our side of the counter,” Esposito said. “Of the four major sports, we hold the lowest win percentage with baseball. Sometimes we just need one of two winners a night on our end, and believe me, it’s not easy.” Still, that hasn’t stopped Station or the STN Sports App from continuing to expand its baseball betting menu, as it recently added a first three inning line (which team will be winning at the end of the third.) “With those types of bets, guests are really betting the favorites, hoping that the top of the lineup might be able to get to the plate twice,” Esposito said.
Links
The first tournament from the much-hyped LIV golf series came and went.. “The action was just fair on that,” Esposito said. “We did win overall, but the action was just fair.” One industry insider claimed that comparing LIV to the PGA is like comparing the USFL to the NFL. “That’s pretty accurate,” Esposito said while pointing out that Station’s posts USFL lines.
Speaking of golf, the US Open kicks off this week, and the Book and STN Sports App are ready, as they feature a multitude of player props, matchup bets and of course, futures bet. Although known players like Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm have low odds, the “field” bet has the lowest odds — clearly a reflection of the fact that there’s no dominant golfer. Going into Thursday’s tee off, Sam Burns carries the largest liability for Stations Sports Book.
No Fault
She’s in! On Tuesday, Wimbledon announced that Serena Williams would be invited to play in the famed tournament next month after getting a wild card invitation. The GOAT has 20-to-1 odds to win the tournament, putting her behind several other women. Don’t expect that number to last. “I don’t know when you’re ever going to get her at a price of like 20 to 1, so I think it’ll be kind of fun to watch and see what kind of action they draw on her,” Esposito said. “I think the public is going to bet on her, and we’ll probably have some significant liability on her.” Repeat: 20-to-1 odds. Get it while it’s hot!
Bets To Know
The Pro Hockey Finals are here and the STN app and Station Casinos have posted a slate of bets, from player props like OV/UN on shots on goal to outright winners of the cup.
Also, the U.S Open has arrived! Keep an eye out for updated U.S Open futures, player matchups, and props available in the app.
STN Sports Weekly Winners
This STN Sports bettor swung for the fences and hit a nice 8 team parlay on June 14th. $5 bet to collect $1,058.93!
- – Braves -1.5 -150
- – Dodgers -1.5 +105
- – Giants -1.5 -120
- – Mets -1.5 +135
- – White Sox -1.5 -120
- – Red Sox -1.5 -115
- – Padres -1.5 +115
- – Yankees -1.5 -105