Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money .
STN Sports Weekly Rundown
August 30, 2023
College Football Week Zero “Meh”s, Week One Arrives
Strike up the band and play the fight songs because college football is back. Like a 1-900 phone call in the ‘80s, last weekend was a bit of a tease. Granted, there were two games featuring some very prominent teams, but the full slate is coming this weekend, which is when all hell will break loose!
With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back at the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books…
Station Casinos guests were crazy in love with the University of Southern California on Saturday, but the Trojans ending up breaking their soul. USC entered its game against San Jose State as a 31-point favorite, and Lincoln Riley’s squad was dominant. Still, like some of Beyonce’s scantily clad outfits, they failed to cover.
“Sharps were on San Jose State, but the public money, which was on USC, clearly outweighed the sharp money. We were huge San Jose State fans both in the first half and in the game,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director. Now, while SC’s defense is more suspect than a shoeless and sock-less man in a trench coat, its offense is every bit as good as advertised, as they damn near covered the over of 66 by themselves. And, everyone was on the over in that game. “I think that’s going to be the case for their games this year as a whole,” Esposito said. “They’ll be shaded toward the over direction, and you’re going to continue to see the public bet that. They’ll be an automatic over bet with that offense and that quick pace.”
In all, over 80% of the money bet on the Southern Cal/SJSU game was on the Trojans. “We had a ton of bets in the $10,000 to $20,000 range on USC. It was just an influx of one-sided play from the public for the most part,” Esposito added.
The Irish Under
The bettors were certainly feeling the luck of the Irish last Saturday, as they had no issue laying three touchdowns on Notre Dame against a very overmatched Navy squad. “There was a lot of money on Notre Dame and the under. We actually needed the over,” Esposito said. “That was one of the few games that you saw some late under money show.”
The house could have pushed on the total of 51, but both teams missed a field goal. “I think if you would’ve told me Notre Dame would’ve scored 42 points and the game stayed under, I would’ve been stunned, but that was the case,” Esposito said. Navy is going to be a heavy running team all season. They’ve basically revealed their agenda, which is what those politicians tried to do in the GOP debate.
Dog Gone It
Ever since opening lines were posted, guests have been loving them some Colorado Buffaloes. Deion Sanders’ squad is still a heavy underdog in its opening contest against TCU, but the number has ticked down due to one-sided action on the Buffs (at least as of now.)
Early money is also coming on home underdog Hawaii against Stanford, and on the Matt Rhule-led Nebraska Cornhuskers, who are a touchdown underdog at Minnesota. A lot of love for the dogs. Then again, we did just celebrate International Dog Day.
Last Man Standing
Last call! There’s still time to enter the Last Man Standing competitions in both the NFL and college football. Guests can sign up in person at any Station Casinos Sports Book, and the cost is $25 per entry. Each contestant who purchases four entries will receive a fifth free. While still active in the competition, guests must turn in weekly picks in person. Active participants are required to select one game against the spread for each entry.
For reference, the Last Man Standing competition in the college field will win a guaranteed minimum of $100,000, and the NFL’s Last Man Standing will take home a guaranteed minimum of $150,000. There are many contests in town, but they all have entry fees higher than a Willie Nelson tour bus. Station brings value to the contest!
Tennis Time
The Big Apple will be causing a racket for the next two weeks. The US Open has kicked off, and the stars are out. In July, Wimbledon generated a huge handle — it might have been the biggest Wimbledon handle ever industry-wide — so there’s a lot of eyeballs looking at the US Open.
“Tennis has become more and more popular. We saw in the last major what a terrific handle we had with [Novak] Djokovic and [Carlos] Alcaraz playing in the final,” Esposito said. “I think that’s going to continue as we put more and more tennis matches up.” The STN App’s In-play feature is particularly strong with tennis, too. Last year’s US Open was dominated by the storyline of it being Serena Williams’s likely final tournament, but her absence isn’t expected to decrease handle (lord knows it didn’t for Wimbledon!)
“With the mobile app and the kiosks and adding matchups and in-play, the handle continues to grow pretty much across the board for tennis,” Esposito said. “I don’t think Serena not being there will have a major effect on handle.”
Baseball Crunch Time
In the National League, it really seems like a two-team race between the Braves and Dodgers, both prohibitive favorites. The rest of the NL teams might wanna consider surrendering like a former president. Over in the American League, though, the race is wide open. While the Astros are the favorite to come out of the AL, no team is really standing out.
But, where’s the value? Maybe took toward the midwest. The Minnesota Twins are likely to make the playoffs, and they’ll host a home series should they win the AL Central. The Twinkies have 20-to-1 odds. “There’s value out there,” Esposito said. Remember, the Phillies were on nobody’s radar last year, and they made it all the way to the Fall Classic. Crazier things have happened!
Bets To Know
With the Ryder Cup teams selected, it’s time to look ahead. STN Sports has posted odds on who will hoist the trophy in October. More prop bets to come as matchups are announced.
Weekly Winners
Congrats to this bettor on a great 8-teamer across baseball this past Monday, $15 to win $1,522.72.
– YES (K GAUSMAN) (WILL PITCHER RECORD WIN) EV
– YES (B SNELL) (WILL PITCHER RECORD WIN) +105
– ORIOLES -250
– ASTROS +115
– BREWERS +115
– PIRATES EV
– BRAVES -240
– MARINERS -275
