Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money.

STN Sports Weekly Rundown

November 4, 2021

Forget the tricks. Halloween was a real treat for the Station Casinos Race & Sportsbook. After weeks of getting battered by bettors, the book was seeing green… gang green! “Winning in the sportsbook is a four-letter word, and it’s spelled J-E-T-S,” Station Casinos Race & Sportsbook Director Chuck Esposito said. The East Rutherford/New York Jets were the first team this season to win outright after being an underdog of at least 7.5 points. Typically, something like this happens far earlier in the season. Let’s look back at the week that was, and look forward to the coming week in sports betting…

Back That Thing Up
The list of winning quarterbacks from Week 8 included some of the usual names, but it also included these guys: Trevor Siemian, Mike White and Cooper Rush, all of whom are backup quarterbacks. This isn’t exactly a who’s who of football; it’s more of a who in the hell are these guys! Siemian, White and Rush sounds like a music group who plays at your local VFW hall. To say few people had confidence in the “VFW Three” is probably overstating it. Rush took the reins of the Cowboys, who are undefeated against the spread. The ‘Boys came in as a small underdog, despite being a legit title contender. Rotten Tomatoes probably had more confidence in Rush Hour than sports fans had in Rush. But hold on to your cowboy hats: the signal caller actually played well and led America’s Team down the field for a game-winning TD. In the words of WWE icons Legion of Doom, “Oh What A Rush!” Moving on to White and the double-digit underdog J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS. All White did was lead the team to an outright win and pass for 405 yards, the second most by a quarterback in his first NFL start. And now onto Siemian, the GOAT slayer. Unlike Rush and White, the Saints THIRD-STRINGER didn’t know he was going to play, but his opportunity came when Jameis Winston went down. Here the thing: the game was tied at 7-7 when Winston went down. Everyone in the world — and even some of the aliens at Area 51 — knew that Tom Brady was going to pounce all over the Saints… except that didn’t happen. Siemian took over and led his team to a win against Gisele’s husband. Who could have seen ANY of this happening? “If you could have put odds on all three of these guys winning outright, the odds would have been astronomical, too huge to correlate,” Esposito said. You betta back up!

Identity KComplex
Remember that famous Snickers commercial where the Kansas City groundskeeper spells the team name incorrectly and someone asks, “Who are the Chefs?” That’s kind of what we’re dealing with in regard to this Kansas City team, as they’re not exactly cooking up trademark wins. Who are these imposters wearing the Kansas City Chiefs uniforms? Granted, Patrick Mahomes and the crew pulled out the Monday Night Football win, but they hardly looked impressive in beating Big Blue. They just aren’t the team everyone thought they’d be. There’s much better fusion at Palace Station’s Boathouse. KC can’t run the ball and they need help on defense. They could also use a big play threat next to Tyreek Hill, who’s faster than most Internet speeds. They did little to help their cause at the trade deadline, and now comes a big test, as they host Green Bay on a short week.

Ramroded
Picture this: you bet late in the week and laid 16.5 points on the Rams against an increasingly dismal Texans team. It’s the fourth quarter and the Los Angeles-to-St. Louis-to Los Angeles Rams are up 38-0. But things changed. Like a few of you did in high school in the back of a Volkswagen Jetta, Houston scored! They then quickly scored again. After that came a successful onside kick and another touchdown… How’s that -16.5 looking now? The team led by Davis Mills (who?) punctuated that third TD with a two-point conversion. Final score 38-22. Talk about getting ramrodded if you bet Matt Stafford and Co. “If you got that game early in the week and bet the Rams you were still smiling,” Esposito said, “but that back door swung way open and the Texans got the late cover.”

Bad, Bad, Bad Beat
Once in a while there comes a bad beat that transcends time. Welcome to the Clemson/Florida State game. Closing line: Clemson -9.5. Total 47. Let’s just start late in the fourth quarter when the Seminoles were actually up by 3. With under 3 minutes left, Clemson took the lead with the touchdown, but the Sems are well within the spread, only down 24-20. FSU eventually got the ball, but the outcome was hardly in doubt. With 4 seconds left on the clock and deep in their own territory, FSU attempted the ole lateral game, which almost never works. Spoiler alert: it didn’t work this time either. What did happen? FSU tossed a backward pass that wasn’t caught, and Clemson retrieved the ball and scored a touchdown with 0.00 on the clock. Final score: Clemson 30-20. In other words, FSU fails to cover and so does the under. Call it a twofer. There are “Florida Man” headlines less repulsive.

Pigskin Saturdays
Last week’s marquee college football matchup featured a couple top 10 teams in Michigan and Michigan State (Sorry Harbaugh.) This week’s docket gives us two top 15 teams in Texas A&M and Auburn, and Jimbo Fisher’s guys have been established as the favorite. While that’s arguably the most marquee game on the schedule, there are some interesting tidbits also littered within the schedule that show how much the hierarchy of the college game has changed (and stayed the same.) Just two years ago LSU was a favorite against Alabama. This weekend, the Tigers are over a four-score underdog. Georgia, meanwhile, is the definition of dominance. “This defense has only given up six touchdowns this year, and they’re trying to set the mark for lowest points ever given up,” Esposito said. The Bulldogs spreads are getting bigger and bigger by the week, but some of that has to do with the defense’s desire to be the best ever. “They’re doing everything they can to shut out opponents and make a statement. This is a really good defense,” Esposito said. “They’re playing for pride defensively and for the record, so they’re not pulling guys late in the game when they have a big lead. They’re trying to do everything they can to prevent teams from scoring at all.” Prepare to send condolences to Missouri this weekend, as they’re Georgia’s next victim opponent.

Feeling Brave
With a 3-1 lead it the World Series, the Atlanta Braves had the champagne on ice on Sunday night when they took a 4-0 lead in the first inning, but they had to cork it for a few days after the Astros came roaring back to win the game. The celebration, though, was on after Game 6, which the Braves easily took. Say hello to your World Series champions. This one was over early, as ATL learned from its previous mistakes and held onto the early lead, even increasing it. En route to winning their first World Series since 1995, the Braves weren’t favored in any of the series they played in. In fact, of the 10 teams that made the playoffs, the Braves’ odds of winning the whole enchilada were in the bottom half. And because it’s never too early to look ahead, there’s a decent chance that these two teams could meet again next October. STN Sports already has them both listed among the early favorites to win the 2022 World Series.

Drop The Gloves
Let’s get ready to rumble! It’s once again fight weekend in Las Vegas, where heavy favorite and Ring Magazine’s pound-for-pound champion Canelo Alvarez takes on Caleb Plant. Plant is hardly a walk in the park, coming in with an undefeated record of 21-0. While a few pundits equate this to David vs Goliath, Esposito sees it differently. “Plant is a really good fighter and I think there is some value. I think it’s a good fight,” he said. “I love fight weekend, and I love when fights are in Vegas. I do think this will go more than a few rounds. I think Plant at the current price is a live underdog.”

Windy City Hoopsters
In the NBA’s Eastern Conference, all roads go through Chicago… At least night now. The Bulls are off to a red hot start. More than that, they can’t be fazed, as they’ve erased double-digit deficits a few times. See what happens when Lonzo Ball’s dad isn’t around all the time! “They’re easily the story of the Eastern Conference,” Esposito said. On the left coast, the story once again seems to be the Lakers average record and the Suns’ less-than-average record (No word if Maricopa County wants to audit the results.) “Overall, the NBA has been good, the handle has been phenomenal,” Esposito said.

Bets To Know

Boxing: Alvarez vs. Plant – 5 Ways To Bet The Outcome

1. Alvarez by KO
2. Alvarez by Decision
3. Plant by Decision
4. Plant by KO
5. 12 Round Draw

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington – 7 Ways To Bet The Outcome

1. Usman by KO/TKO/DQ
2. Usman by Decision
3. Covington by Decision
4. Covington by KO/TKO/DQ
5. Usman by Submission
6. Covington by Submission
7. Draw

STN Sports Weekly Winners

At the time the Braves were under .500 and at third place in their Division. Their record was 44-45.