Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money.

STN Sports Weekly Rundown

November 17, 2021

The Washington Football Team doesn’t have a permanent name yet, but if they want to adopt a nickname right now they could stake their claim to Ticket Tyrants or Bet Burners… or maybe Soul Crushers (Hey, they’re all better than that other name the team used for decades).

In taking down Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a double digit underdog on Nov. 14, WFT, led by Taylor Get-Your-Hands-Off-My Heinicke, decimated spread bets, money line bets, parlays and teasers. Hmmm, another double digit underdog winning outright — where have we heard about this before? Oh, that’s right, it was right here last week in the STN newsletter! (There are a few double digit spreads in the upcoming NFL week, too… just saying.)  The Bucs loss was far from the only surprising thing on Sunday. Let’s look back at the week that was, and look forward to the coming week in sports betting…

Who Ya Got?

We’re old enough to remember when the Arizona Cardinals were dominating the league, the Kansas City Chiefs were in last place, the Rams were scaring every team and Lamar Jackson seemed to have the inside track to the MVP. Feels like an eternity ago, right?

Yeah, that was last week. Things have changed.

On Sunday, the Cardinals got embarrassed at home by Carolina; the Chiefs are now leading the AFC West; the Rams have lost two straight, including a Monday night thrashing; and the Ravens and Jackson got beat down by Miami. “From a week-to-week basis the NFL changes extremely drastically, so expect the unexpected,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Race and Sports Book Director. “The only constant right now is that the Tennessee Titans keep winning.” The Titans also have an impressive 7-3 record against the spread. Meanwhile, in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers might be the best team over there, which is something you wouldn’t have said last week. Then again, you also probably weren’t putting too much thought into the word “immunized” until last week either.

What Ha-Happened Was…

Now that we’re past the halfway point of the NFL season, we may not know who the best team is, but we know who the most disappointing teams are. No one expected much from the Lions, Texans or Jets, so they get a pass here, but what happened with Seattle and Miami? The Dolphins were a 10-win team last year, but are stumbling along at 3-7. They were doing better when Ray Finkle was kicking “laces out” field goals and making out with Ace Ventura under a pseudonym. Seattle, meanwhile, won their division last year, but the wheels have come off, especially defensively. “They weren’t playing well with or without Russell Wilson. Defensively, they can’t get off the field,” Esposito said.

He’s right. By the end of games, the Seahawks defense is so tired that it makes Tom Hanks look well rested in Sleepless in Seattle. On a happier note, Esposito thinks the biggest surprise of the season is New England, who’s ATS record matches their actual record. It’s called symmetry, folks! “I’m not sure they don’t win the AFC East,” Esposito said. “They play really good defense and they’re undefeated on the road. And in that league, if you can win on the road, you can win anywhere.”

Six-Figures Richer

We have a winner! On Nov. 16 a bettor named Dan B. strolled into Red Rock Casino Resort and walked out with a $100,000 check, his reward for winning Station Casinos’ Last Man Standing Contest in college football. The pick that clinched it for Dan: Oregon -6.5 against Washington in week 9. The Ducks won 26-16, but Dan B., who does his betting at Red Rock, was the real winner of the day. Every one of Dan’s selections were favorites, prompting Esposito to proclaim, “The chalk came through for him.” College players aren’t the only ones getting paid these days!

Don’t Duck

Speaking of Oregon, the Ducks should be on high alert this week. On Saturday, Oregon travels to Salt Lake City to take on a very stubborn Utah team — and Oregon is an underdog! That’s right, the BCS’ No. 3 team is, in theory, not expected to win. “I think this is a really tough spot for Oregon,” Esposito said. “They’ve had some scares over the past month, and I’d be a bit scared if I were them.” While both Utah and Oregon have middle-of-the-road ATS records, the Utes are undefeated at home, and Salt Lake is notoriously a hard place to capture a win as a visitor. With visions of playing in the PAC-12 championship game, Utah wouldn’t mind snacking on some duck at both Allegiant Stadium and 8 Noodle Bar. For those of you keeping score at home, by the way, Esposito correctly predicted that Oklahoma would slip up in the coming weeks and the BCS dream would end (See: Baylor-Oklahoma score last week.) With that in mind, Oregon and Oregon bettors should proceed with caution this weekend.

No BS BCS

The biggest game on the college football schedule this week is arguably No. 3 Ohio State hosting No. 7 Michigan State. Although the rankings are close, the line isn’t, with the Buckeyes opening at nearly a three-touchdown favorite. But is this a classic trap game? Is Ohio State looking ahead to its Nov. 27 showdown at Michigan? “That will be a huge game,” Esposito said. While it’s always one of the most wagered on regular season games every season, this game has some added intrigue. If Michigan wins  — and Jim Harbaugh gets the monkey off his back — the Wolverines could easily sneak into the BCS’ top 4 teams and potentially knock out Ohio State and “the little engine that could,” otherwise known as Cincinnati, a team that continues to be the bridesmaid when rankings are released. A team to look out for? Notre Dame. If the Irish keep winning as expected, they could be like that Instagram creep and slide into the DM’s BCS. Their only loss would have come at the hands of, well, Cincinnati. “If Cincy can run the table, it might be hard to leave them out, but they’ve had a lot of unimpressive wins over lesser foes over the last few weeks,” Esposito said. Interesting enough, Cincy hosts SMU this week, which isn’t a walk in the park. “They’re at home and this is the smallest favorite they’ve been over the last month and they haven’t covered in four straight weeks,” Esposito noted.

Feeling Blue

Legend has it that the blue turf at Boise State’s home stadium is where birds go to die. It’s also where bets go to die. The bad beat Gods claimed another victim on Saturday, and, like most Lindsay Lohan movies, it was tough to watch. Going into the game, the Broncos were laying two touchdowns and seemed well on their way to a tidy 23-7 win against Wyoming. But, with 4 seconds left in the game, the Cowboys quarterback Levi Williams connected with Isaiah Neyor  for a 74-yard touchdown. Final score: 23-13. The Smurf Turf has no conscience.

NBA Wizardry

On Tuesday night, the NBA gave us a sexy entree with the Golden State Warriors traveling across the country to take on the Brooklyn Nets. In the end, Chef Curry and his California clan made a huge statement, toppling the Nets by 18. The Warriors are really, really good, but we already knew that. You know who else has quietly built up a stellar early season record? The Washington Wizards. They have the best record in the East! Even the most passionate Wizards fans would be lying if they said they predicted that (Then again, they do play in Washington D.C., where people pretty much lie for a living.)

“Washington is a huge surprise,” Esposito said. Phoenix is also on fire, but it has nothing to do with climate change. After stumbling out of the gate, the Suns caught their stride and rattled off nine in row. The Lakers, on the other hand, aren’t exactly striking fear in opponents, although LeBron James is set to return this week, which will undoubtedly help. “You look at the Lakers, I’m not overly impressed,” Esposito said. “I know it’s a long season and you’ve got LeBron and [Anthony] Davis, but I just don’t know if they did enough to help themselves in the offseason with the type of players that are good role players.”  NBA teams are like a puzzle, and Westbrook just might not fit. One month into the season and the Lakers have clearly been a bet against.

Duck Hunting

While Edmonton and Florida continue to roll, a rather shocking thing is happening in Anaheim. Much like Pete Davidson’s dating history, the Ducks have been downright impressive and confounding. This team was dead last in the West Division when last season ended. Hell, they were the second-worst team in the league! What a difference a few months make. The Ducks are holding their own in the Pacific and the quack attack has won eight straight games. Anaheim bettors, all 19 of them, are making a killing on the Ducks. Maybe chalk it up to Disneyland magic.

While Anaheim is a nice story, the same can’t be said for Colorado, Chicago or Montreal.  “I know Chicago had a lot of distractions, but they were expected to be a playoff team,” Esposito said. “Going into the season I thought the Avalanche were the best team in the league. By far though, Montreal has been the biggest disappointment.”

Food For Thought

While Las Vegas doesn’t have an NBA team yet, you could argue that it’s still the epicenter of the basketball universe, especially with the multitude of college basketball tournaments happening over the next month. Teams visiting Vegas over the next four weeks: Gonzaga, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and more. If you’re a college basketball fan, Vegas is the place to be.

Bets To Know

For example, last night’s Pro Hockey Grand Salami was 17.5 for 3 games. And if you like “MACtion,” be on the lookout for a conference-wide Grand Salami for the total of all games played over the course of the week!

STN Sports Weekly Winners