Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money .
STN Sports Weekly Rundown
December 1, 2021
Even with the holidays in full swing, there’s no such thing as a silent night in the NFL or college football. While last Thursday gave us three Thanksgiving games, we got the leftovers on Saturday and Sunday in the form of the pigskin. Parity once against reigned supreme in the big boy league, as favorites went 6-5 against the spread. The five underdogs who covered the spread actually won outright. In some cases, the Station Casinos Sports Book faired well, in others, the bettors did well. Regardless, much like Lincoln Riley, the Sports Book and STN App users will fight on! Let’s take a look at the past week in sports betting, and also look ahead to what’s in store and where there’s value to be had.
Take Your Pick?
The Super Bowl spread is in! While we still have no idea who’s going to be playing in the big game in February, the line is ready for bettors to pounce on, especially if you majored in fortune telling in college. This week, the STN App released the lines of 25 potential Super Bowl matchups — everything from Cardinals vs Titans, to Rams vs. Ravens is on there. “I’m not sure what the most likely scenario is, but the most intriguing matchup is the Patriots and Buccaneers,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. “For our industry, that would be a monster, an absolute bonanza. You would see a phenomenal, phenomenal handle.” Tampa Bay, for what it’s worth, is a favorite in all of its potential matchup scenarios. Congrats in advance, Tom.
Kicked By The Colts
Speaking of the Buccaneers, they say pirates like to take your money, but this was just downright rude. In one of Sunday’s marquee games, Indianapolis hosted the reigning champs, and the Bucs were laying a three-pointer. Colts bettors looked good early on, especially with a 10-point lead at halftime. The game proceeded to go back and forth, but the Colts tied it up with about 2:30 left in the game. Tom Brady and the Bucs proceeded to kill clock while marching down the field. With practically no time remaining and already in field goal range, Tampa Bay was simply looking to run the ball and win on a field goal. In that scenario, the Colts would then lose by three but bettors would push the bet, hence living to fight another day. Suddenly, with just 20 seconds left in the game, Indy’s defense forgot how to tackle and Leonard Fournette ran 28 yards to the house for a touchdown. Final score 38-31. Bucs cover. Colts fan’s tickets have been retired to the bad beat graveyard. The public was largely on the Bucs and the spread in that one, so the bad beat was felt more by the Book.
Gold Rush
Don’t look now, but the San Fransisco 49ers are starting to play like a team possessed. Given the division they play in, the boys from the Bay were largely discarded earlier this season after a 3-5 start and questions at quarterback. The QB questions remain, but it doesn’t seem to matter. The 49ers have a top 10 defense and a better rushing attack than the January 6 protesters. San Francisco has rattled off three straight wins and could make a legitimate push for the playoffs. Interestingly, San Fran is 2-4 at home and 4-1 on the road. “That always kind of resonates with me,” Boulder Station Sports Book Director Christian Mashack said. “If you can win on the road in that league you can have some success.” That’s the kind of team no one wants to face in the playoffs… at home or away!
Under It
The Jaguars and Broncos have both had pretty depressing seasons over the past few years, and bettors are feeling low. Very low. With both teams having anemic offenses and decent enough defenses, Jacksonville and Denver are cashing under after under after under. In fact, the Jags have now cashed six unders in a row, and the Broncos have cashed five unders in a row. Denver plays at Kansas City this week; the Jags head to L.A. to take on a surprisingly struggling Rams squad. In the words of the great poet Lil Jon, “Get low, get low, get low, get low.” Suck on that, Shakespeare.
Tide Turned
Bring on the ‘Dogs! On Dec. 4, Alabama will officially become something they haven’t been since the Obama administration: an underdog. The Tide take on Georgia in the SEC Championship game, and the opening line saw them getting about a touchdown. Prior to this showdown, ’Bama had been a favorite in 92 straight games. The underdog status is uncharted waters for Nick Saban’s squad. It’s also a game Alabama probably has to win in order to make the College Football Playoffs, which takes the top four teams in all the land. Since the current College Football Playoff format was adopted in 2015, Alabama has only missed qualifying once, which was in 2020. “To get a win here, they’re going to have to beat the Bulldogs as an underdog and be the bigger dog,” Esposito said. Either Roll Tide or get washed away to a lesser bowl.
Value Alert
Second verse, same as the first. It was just two weeks ago that Utah blew the doors off Oregon and ruined the Ducks’ shot at joining the College Football Playoffs party. Utah did that as a three-point favorite at home. On Dec. 3 at Allegiant Stadium, it will again be Utah vs Oregon, and a Rose Bowl birth is on the line. The Utes are again giving, you guessed it, three points. This time, though, the game is on a neutral field. Since fans certainly remember Utah’s duck hunting capabilities, that might still resonate. Because of this, “there’s tremendous value on Oregon,” Esposito said. Considering what’s on the line for Oklahoma State, it’s widely expected that that number will go up. There’s value there right now, too. A win against Baylor, coupled with a loss by any team this weekend not named Georgia could very well put Oklahoma State in the playoffs. If you like the Cowboys under a touchdown, make like Sir Mix-a-Lot and jump on it!
Parlay Payday
How would you like to stroll into a casino, pluck down 10 bucks, watch some sports and walk away with $8,000? That’s exactly what one bettor did at Wildfire Rancho last week after hitting a 10-team parlay, which had an 800-1 payout! Some guys have all the luck, right! The unidentified bettor mixed college and pro football spread bets and mainly went with favorites, with the exception of the Raiders on Thanksgiving and Michigan against Ohio State. His payday hinged on the Washington Football Team covering 1.5 points on Monday night. WFT won… by two points… after the field goal kicker went out of the game… and after a Washington touchdown was overturned… and after Seattle scored a TD and failed on a two-point conversation with 15 seconds left in the game. You can’t even get that kind of pressure from the masseuse at The Spa at Green Valley Ranch! (But you can get a nice manicure from biting your nails all night!) On a similar note, several six-figure tickets cashed on the first half Giants-Eagles under.
Puck Play
Over on the ice, the Islanders haven’t been good this season. At all. However, don’t sleep on them just yet. The Isles’ first 13 games were on the road while the finishing touches were being put on their new barn. Granted, they haven’t fared well in the small sample size of home games, but Esposito doesn’t see them as a team that will stay down for long. Keep an eye on Isles, as they very well may start paying out. “Barry Trotz is one of the best coaches in the league and he’ll make those adjustments,” Esposito said. “I do think they’re a team that can turn it around pretty quickly.” The Isles have a ton of home games ahead of them, and they’ve got games in hand on everybody in their division (and everyone in the league, for that matter.) Plus, this was a team in the semifinals just a few months ago.
Kings of the Court
The cream is rising to the top of the NBA. The Warriors and Suns seem to be operating at a higher level than anyone else. But, don’t look now, the champs are starting to run. The Bucks have rattled off seven in a row, reminding everyone to fear the dear! Still, Golden State and Phoenix are making the Station Sports Books work. “We literally have to fade the Suns and Warriors on a nightly basis,” Mashack said. “They’re bet on’s for everybody. Being on the West Coast and late games, in-play bettors are just dumping into those two teams.” He adds, “From our side of the counter, we are not Warriors and Suns fans.” Having said that, PHX and SFO squared off on Tuesday night and gave us a thriller that Phoenix won (and covered.) That brought their winning streak to 17 games in a row. The two Western Conference behemoths will go toe-to-toe again on Friday night in The Bay. Expect fireworks again, and expect a lot of revenge money to pour in on Golden State. Only Cyber Quest got more game than the Suns and Warriors.
Bets To Know
Fans of College Football have truly been treated this season. With favorite falling, dogs barking, and a coaching carousel for added drama, there is no shortage of action as the season comes to a close.
As we speak, College Football Futures are still in the app for who will win the National Championship. This year, more than in recent memory, there could be some sleeper teams that sneak in and make a run…
STN Sports Weekly Winners
145. WASH FB TM -1½
125. BENGALS -4½
117. FALCONS -1½
113. BUCS -2½
95. FLORIDA -2½
57. GEORGIA -35½
40. MICHIGAN +8½
33. WASH ST -½
9. BILLS -6½
6. RAIDERS +7½