Hot takes, bad beats and all things sports betting, a weekly newsletter by Steven Money .
STN Sports Weekly Rundown
December 15, 2021
Perhaps it’s no surprise that the National Finals Rodeo was back in Las Vegas last weekend because bettors were bucking, bucking and bucking! “Christmas came early for a lot of bettors,” said Chuck Esposito, Director of the Station Casinos Sports Book. “It was one of the better weekends our guests have had all season.” Favorites went 11-3 against the spread, a telltale sign that bettors cashed in on the STN app and at Stations’ ticket counters (And yes, in a bit of NFR symmetry, the Cowboys were among the winners). NFL overs, also a favorite of bettors, cashed on more than 70 percent of the games, too. With last week still fresh in our minds, let’s relive a bit of last week and look forward to what we have in store in the sports week ahead.
Doesn’t Fit The Bill
In your best Dennis Green voice say the following: “The Bills aren’t who we thought they were!” A few weeks into the season, Buffalo looked like they might be the best team in the league. Now they’re in danger of maybe missing the playoffs altogether after losses in three of their last four, including on Sunday in overtime against Tampa Bay. The good news for Buffalo is three of their next four games seem winnable. Interestingly, Esposito said that when Stations’ oddsmakers listed the NFC/AFC Super Bowl prop during the first month of the season, the line was based on Buffalo in AFC. “That’s clearly not the case anymore,” Esposito said. “You could argue that the two teams in the Super Bowl last year are on a collision course to do it again.” By the way, a line for that potential Feb. 13 matchup has already been posted, and the Bucs are a small favorite.
Cardinal Sin
Condolences go out to under bettors in the Cardinals/Rams game on Monday night. Most bettors got the total around 51 and under bettors were in pretty good shape late. With 2 minutes left, the Cards were staring at a long 4th down and had no timeouts. If Rams stop them, L.A. gets in victory formation and the game ends 30-20. Cash money. Kyler Murray didn’t get the memo, as he threw a 47 yard pass. Still, the clock was ticking. Two plays later, the Rams dropped an easy interception, which would have sealed the under. A few plays later, the Rams dropped a contested interception in the end zone. That, too, would have sealed the under. None of this happened, and with 37 seconds left Matt Prater kicked a 47-yard field goal. Kiss that under goodbye! Final 30-23. Chalk that one up to another loss for the Station Sports Book, too. “We were under fans from our side of the counter in that one,” Esposito said. The Cardinals loss, by the way, dropped them from the top seed in the NFC to the 3rd seed. Even that might be a little high for Arizona, as evidenced by Monday Night Football’s spread. The Cards — who remember had the NFC’s top seed going into the weekend — closed as 3 point favorites at home against a team that was in the No. 5 spot. If that game was on a neutral field, Esposito said the spread would have been closer to a pick ‘em. In other words, the Cards weren’t perceived as a real Goliath.
The Putrid Six-Pack
Whether you’re talking about beer or body, six-packs are a good thing. This season, Station bettors have been flocking to another six-pack: Jaguars, Texans, Giants, Jets, Lions and Bears. All season long, bettors have been betting hard against the dirty half-dozen, and they don’t seem to be slowing. The sextuplets have been putrid against the spreads. “The good news from our side of the counter is that we can’t lose on both the Jags and Texans this week, because they play each other,” Esposito said. Nico Sfanos, the Race and Sports Book Manager at Sunset Station, zeroed in on the Bears’ failure to cover against the Packers on Sunday night as a double-digit ‘dog — this even after Matt Nagy’s crew put up 30 points, its highest output all year. The ineptitude of the Bears is comical. “I don’t think they’ve made another Bad News Bears movie for a while, but I think they’re due for one, and they can base it off this team,” Sfanos said. Bears fans are hurting more than Aaron Rogers’ toe.
Take It To The Turf
The marquee matchup of the NFL weekend takes place in Indiana, a place that gave us Larry Bird, Bobby Knight temper tantrums and some concoction called persimmon pudding. On Saturday (yes, Saturday) the Patriots take on the Colts in the House That Peyton Built. The Hoodie’s team sits atop the AFC, and the Colts currently hold a wildcard spot. Indy, though, is a small favorite. Under normal circumstances, this might be a classic look-ahead spot for New England, as they have a big divisional game next week against Buffalo. Still, one thing we know about Bill Belichick teams is that they’re always prepared. “If the Pats were to lose this week and next week against the Bills, Buffalo could overtake them in the division,” Esposito pointed out. Both teams, by the way, are in the top 10 as far as fewest points scored against them, and they both have tremendous running games, which chews up clock —only Red Rock and Green Valley Ranch’s Fatburger have a better ground game! Then again, both the Pats and Colts are actually just average as far as stopping the run, as they each give up more than 110 yards per game on the turf… And you thought turf wars only happened in Hollywood movies.
Bowl Mania
Mark your calendars. College Football bowl season officially begins on Friday with the Bahamas Bowl and the Cure Bowl. Both games, surprisingly enough, have some of the highest point spreads of the entire bowl season, as Toledo and Coastal Carolina are double-digit favorites. “In terms of betting, we live in an information era, and I’d urge bettors to use the information that they get,” Esposito implored. “There are coaches leaving and players opting out of the games. There are a lot of things that can affect a number.” The lesson: stay tuned in to what’s happening with specific teams and pay attention to the chatter surrounding certain squads. “We’re looking at everything from our side of it, including social media, but it’s almost hourly that you’re seeing something that will impact the number,” Esposito said. “If you do your homework, I think you can find some value in these games.”
Court’s In Session
Let’s go streaking! One thing we’ve learned about the NBA so far is that teams continue to go to very long streaks, one way or another. Pro tip: don’t be afraid to ride the hot team, or bet against the cold team (we see you, Pistons!) “The Warriors, Suns, Jazz and Grizzlies all have at least seven or eight wins in their last 10 games,” Esposito marveled. Although Brooklyn is still very good, and there are rumblings that Kyrie Irving might return, the Western Conference is more loaded than the holiday punch bowl at Merry Crimson. “It’s seems a little unbalanced right now. The west really seems to be the dominant conference,” Esposito said. Very similar to the NFL, top teams know how to win on the road, which has been a calling card for the four aforementioned Western Conference teams. To be fair, Brooklyn also has an impressive road record. Over in the east, don’t sleep on the Cavaliers — instead, sleep on a King bed at Santa Fe Station. The Cavs have quietly become a cover machine in the NBA, compiling a 22-6-1 record against the spread. “Cleveland and Memphis are probably the two biggest surprises during the first two months of the season,” Esposito added.
One-And-Done
The top team in the college basketball polls is… not somewhere you want to be! Through the first six weeks of the season, there have already been four teams ranked No. 1: Gonzaga, Duke, Purdue and now Baylor. “Baylor is going to be the team that everybody’s gunning for right now, and it doesn’t seem like a coveted spot because teams haven’t stayed there too long,” Esposito said. Thus far, college basketball betting has been on the lighter side, but that’s normal while college football is in session. Expect college hoops betting to pick up faster than a California driver heading toward Primm. “There’s no team that bettors are pounding on a nightly basis yet,” Esposito said.
Housekeeping
From football, basketball, hockey, boxing, UFC and everything in between, the STN App lets you stay in the action. With STN, the palm of your hand can haul in more wins than Las Vegas Raiders receivers! Download the STN Sports App now and get up to a $100 bonus, and for a $50 deposit, guests can get a cool STN hat.
Bets To Know
Check out these Way Way Too Early Big Game 2024 Props you can bet right now via STN Sports:
– Team To Win Coin Toss (AFC/NFC)
– Will There Be a Safety (Y/N)
– Will The Game Go Into O/T (Y/N)
– Team To Score First Will Win The Game (Y/N)
– Team To Score Last Will Win The Game (Y/N)
– Will There Be At Least a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown
STN Sports Weekly Winners
– CHIEFS -4
– RAIDERS OV 43
– SAINTS -1
– JETS UN 48
– 49ERS OV 44
– TITANS -4
– RAVENS +8
– WASH FB TM +9
– COWBOYS OV 43
– SEAHAWKS -4
– CHARGERS -5
– BUCS +2
– BILLS OV 48
– PACKERS -8
– RAMS OV 47
