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STN Sports Weekly Rundown
December 28, 2022
Sports Book “Steels” One and UNLV Basketball Surges
Out with the old, and in with the new! The great thing about a new year is the chance for a fresh start, and lord knows there are a bunch of players that could use it – anyone named Wilson comes to mind, other than maybe Tom Hanks’ volleyball. Interestingly, that volleyball is about as spiked as the Raiders’ season after that Christmas Eve loss to Pittsburgh.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back over the sports landscape and dish out some insight on what’s ahead on the field, on the court, on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books.
Steelers Save Christmas For Books
The Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book played the role of the grinch on Christmas Eve, as it scored wins with victories by the Cowboys, Panthers and Steelers. “The Steelers really saved the day. Although there was still a lot of liability tied to everything in that game, it was a much better scenario for us having the Steelers win the game outright,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director.
The Steelers closed as a 2.5-point favorite, but the vast majority of the money went on the Raiders and the under, the latter of which didn’t happen. Although the Raiders’ playoff chances are mathematically alive, the chances of them actually making the postseason are less likely than a sober tourist on New Year’s Eve. Because of this, there is chatter of the Raiders benching Derek Carr and putting Jarrett Stidham under center for the final two games. As it stands, the spread for the Jan. 1 game against the 49ers assumes that Carr is directing the offense. If Josh McDaniels decides to switch things up and go with Stidham, the spread will shoot up.
“Normally the difference on a starting quarterback to a backup quarterback, especially the marquee guys, is around a touchdown,” Esposito said. Carr isn’t worth seven points (ouch!), but the line would likely go up four or five points if Stidham is named the Week 17 starter.
AFC South Battle
While many games in Week 17 will have an impact on playoff positioning, there are some relatively meaningless games for playoff hopefuls. Oddly, two of those teams are Jacksonville and Tennessee. Those two will face off in Week 18, and the winner of that contest will win the AFC South and host a home playoff game. Smart bettors have already keyed in on the fact that the Jags and Titans games are meaningless, as all the love is going to the Texans and Cowboys, respectively.
The scheduling situation is interesting, particularly for the Jags, who have won four of their last five. They obviously want to keep the momentum going, but what if Trevor Lawrence gets injured and is out next week? This meaningless game against Houston will not have been worth it. On the Titans side, they plan to bring Derek Henry back this week, who’s been out with a hip injury. But, is he on a pitch count? There’s also the Jalen Hurts question for the Eagles. Will he play? Bettors either think he’ll play, or they’re believers in the Gardner Minshew, as the Eagles’ line has ticked up.
Of course, there are meaningful games, too. The Buffalo at Cincinnati game is bigger than a T-Bones porterhouse, as both teams vie for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the coveted bye week. “This is huge for both, but especially the Bills,” Esposito said. “Making every opponent go through Orchard Park, and those conditions, I think is huge to them.”
He’s right. Having seen the recent snowfall, Buffalo is more buried than a call center at Southwest Airlines. Right now, the Bills are a very, very small favorite against Cincy. “Sometimes you don’t see much movement on the marquee game of the week because we’re treating it differently,” Esposito said. “We want to really be driven off a number before we move it.”
“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows” —Bob Dylan.
Rebel Rebel
In case you haven’t noticed — and judging by the attendance, you haven’t — the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels are good! The squad entered the week with a record of 11-1 (7-4 ATS!) and they’ve conquered several Power 5 schools. Still, now that they’re in a city with three professional teams, the Rebels have been slept on more than a Sunset Station king mattress. That is slowly changing.
“The bettors have come back to them,” Esposito said. “This was maybe a team that was ignored for the most part the past few years. I’m not saying we didn’t take bets on them, but they didn’t have that same popularity they used to have.”
Recently, though, there’s been more affection for Kevin Kruger’s team. In fact, there’s been enough action of them that the Book has been in a position where it’s rooting for UNLV to win but not cover the line. Esposito estimates that Rebels games haven’t generated this much handle in more than five years.
“I think the Mountain West Conference as a whole is a little bit better than it’s been,” Esposito opined. “If the Rebels are able to win against some of these upper echelon teams in the conference, they’re gonna get some respect.”
Bets To Know
Guests and sharps use a lot of theories and strategies when placing bets at the window or on the STN Sports App, but sometimes their eyes are the best predictor. Because of this, in-play betting is getting a major boost based on the eye test and weather. Consider trying out in-play as we continue to get unpredictable weather this season.
“Before the games you’re sort of guessing what the weather will be like at some of these places, but now you can actually see it, and Unders have become a much more popular bet on in-play than they have in the past,” Esposito said, “and that goes for both college and pro.”
Weekly Winners
$100 –> $30,000 from this HUGE Week 16 teaser that hit over the holidays! Congrats to this guest who was dialed in for pro football.
- – Chargers PICK
- – Bucs -3
- – Rams +8
- – Packers +9
- – Raiders +8
- – Eagles +10
- – 49ers -2
- – Chiefs -5
- – Texas +8
- – Bills -3
- – Bengals +2
- – Panthers +8
- – Saints +8
- – Giants +9
- – Jaguars +8